Excitement Cools Off, Momentum Still Positive

by on March 24, 2012 | ETFs Mentioned:

Bullish momentum cooled off a bit last week thanks to sparse economic data releases and lingering profit taking pressures. Investors fretted over worse-than-expected data from the housing market on the home front, while slowdowns in manufacturing across Europe and China also added to the list of uncertainties. Despite relative weakness in the stock market, gold prices posted a lackluster performance; the precious metal oscillated between minor gains and losses for most of the week, managing to end the week right near $1,660 an ounce.

Actionable ETF Trade Ideas

Last Week’s Actionable ETF Ideas
Ticker Position Performance







Our picks from Monday’s Insider posted a mixed performance as one of our long recommendation turned sour, eating away at the profits from our other two trades. Below, we highlight how our trade ideas fared during the week [sign up for a free trial of ETFdb Pro to get actionable ETF ideas every Monday, as well as access to more than 40 all-ETF model portfolios].

Trade #1 Long FXI: Down 1.8%

This recommendation got off to a worrisome start right as the opening bell on Monday rang and FXI opened below last week’s closing price. FXI managed to hold its ground above $38 a share, although selling pressures extended into Tuesday and this ETF sank dismally; we incurred a 1.8% loss on the week as FXI opened below our stop-loss at $37.50 a share on Tuesday morning. Nonetheless, our technical analysis saved us from incurring greater losses as FXI finished the week at $36.91 a share.

Trade #2 Long FXE: Up 0.8%

This recommendation got off to an explosive start as the euro rallied against the U.S. dollar on Monday. Bullish momentum cooled off in the following days and FXE gave up its gains for the week by the end of trading on Thursday. However, this trade jumped back into positive territory on Friday as the U.S. dollar made way for gains in the euro; FXE settled just above $132 a share on Friday, leaving us with a respectable 0.08% gain on the week.

Trade #3 Long AGG: Up 0.4%

Our bearish hunch proved correct this week as equity markets finally hit a bump in the road. AGG bounced off the $109 level as predicted; this ETF inched higher from Tuesday through the closing bell on Friday, leaving us with a small 0.4% gain on the week. AGG did close above its 200-day moving average on Friday, which could be interpreted as a bullish indication that the ongoing uptrend is still in-tact.

ETFdb Portfolios

Retirement ETFdb Portfolios

Despite weakness across equity markets, even our bond-heavy retirement portfolios failed to post impressive performances. Our Low-Volatility portfolio held its ground best thanks to its conservative approach, while not surprisingly our Aggressive portfolio came in last place from a weekly performance perspective [see All Portfolio Returns].

ETFdb Portfolio Weekly Return
Low Volatility -0.41%
Ready To Retire -0.45%
5 Years Til Retirement -0.55%
Moderate -0.76%
Cheapskate -0.81%
10 Years Til Retirement -0.97%
20 Years Til Retirement -1.18%
30 Years Til Retirement -1.25%
Aggressive -1.48%

Regional ETFdb Portfolios

Foreign equity markets took a hit this past week as investors broadly scaled back on their risk exposure, taking profits across emerging markets with impressive year-to-date performances. Our Global Titans portfolio came out on top thanks to its allocation to “safer”, developed countries, while our BRIC-or-Bust portfolio fared worst, losing nearly three points on the week.

ETFdb Portfolio Weekly Return
Global Titans -0.62%
Ex-Europe -0.67%
LatAm-Centric -1.60%
Africa-Centric -1.70%
Emerging & Frontier Markets -1.81%
Ex-U.S. -1.89%
Easy-As-ABC -1.99%
Asia-Centric -2.19%
Euro Free Europe -2.20%
BRIC-or-Bust -2.64%

Themed ETFdb Portfolios

Almost all of our themed portfolios ended the week in negative territory as profit taking spread across all corners of the market. Our 2012 portfolio came out on top for the week, while gold’s dismal performance put the GLD-Free Gold Bug portfolio at the bottom of the barrel for another week.

ETFdb Portfolio Weekly Return
2012 ETFdb Portfolio 0.13%
Better-Than-AGG Total Bond Market 0.02%
High Tech -0.04%
Cheapskate Hedge Fund -0.21%
Actively-Managed -0.29%
Financials Free -0.38%
Alpha Seeker 2.0 -0.42%
Ben Graham 50/50 -0.42%
Greedy When Others Are Fearful -0.47%
High Tax Bracket -0.57%
Socially Responsible -0.69%
Simple (But Effective) Safe Haven -0.72%
Baby Boomers -0.88%
High Yield -0.99%
Small Cap -1.05%
Kitchen Sink -1.10%
King Dollar -1.35%
Equal Weight -1.40%
Black Swan Hyperinflation -1.51%
AlphaDEX -1.55%
Commodity Guru -1.59%
Futures Free Commodity -1.61%
The Sky Is Falling -1.87%
RAFI -1.88%
Energy Bull -2.32%
GLD-Free Gold Bug  -2.58%

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.