Budget Woes Spoil Holiday Cheer

by on December 22, 2012 | ETFs Mentioned:

‘Twas the Friday before Christmas and all through the Street, panic ensued on “fiscal cliff” deeds. No matter how you spin it, hope and fear alone have swayed markets post-election, as politicians in Washington D.C. have yet to agree upon a concrete deal for averting the much-feared series of looming tax hikes and spending cuts. As budget drama stole the headlines, better-than-expected data slipped under the radar; personal income and durable goods orders data both beat analyst expectations, shedding some hope on an otherwise clouded outlook for the U.S. economy [see Free 7 Simple & Cheap All- ETF Model Portfolios].

Actionable ETF Trade Ideas

Our picks from Monday’s Insider posted solid performance results despite Friday’s brutal sell-off. Below, we highlight how our trade ideas fared during the week [sign up for a free trial of ETFdb Pro to get actionable ETF ideas every Monday, as well as access to more than 50 all-ETF model portfolios].

Last Week’s Actionable ETF Ideas
Ticker Position Week Performance
VNQ

Long

+2.1%
XLE

Long

+0.9%
TLT

Long

-2.0%

Trade #1 Long VNQ: Up 2.1%

This recommendation kicked off the week on a very bullish note as VNQ charged higher right out of the gates on Monday morning. This ETF saw its biggest gains on Wednesday as better-than-expected U.S. GDP data bolstered stocks higher across the board for the day. Friday’s sell-off leeched away some gains, however, this pick still ended in very positive territory for the week as the closing bell rang.

Trade #2 Long XLE: Up 0.9%

This recommendation started off strong as well, although unlike VNQ and much of the market, XLE saw its biggest gains on Tuesday for the week. This ETF failed to summit the $74 level in the second half of the week and ultimately slumped lower alongside the broad market on Friday. Despite finishing on a very weak note, XLE still managed to turn in a small gain on the week.

Trade #3 Long TLT: Down 2.0%

This was our defensive recommendation for the week which we mistimed as we did not anticipate such bullish price action on Wall Street during the first half of the week. TLT got off to a sour start right away on Monday, closing just below the $122 level. Selling pressured stuck around on Tuesday sinking this ETF past our outlined stop-loss, which forced us out of the trade.

ETFdb Portfolios

Retirement ETFdb Portfolios

With “risk on” sentiment prevailing this week, it’s no surprise to see our Aggressive Portfolio turn in the best performance while our defensive-minded Low Volatility Portfolio came in at the bottom of the barrel.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
5 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 1.72% -0.11% 1.80% 8.21% 9.64% 42.86% 63.73%
10 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 1.77% -0.79% 1.09% 8.21% 10.11% 47.69% 68.51%
20 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 2.22% -0.67% 1.16% 9.27% 12.19% 55.30% 77.78%
30 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 2.51% -1.06% 0.95% 8.69% 11.19% 59.63% 84.09%
Aggressive Portfolio 2.18% -3.55% -3.86% 2.14% 4.48% 40.31% n/a
Cheapskate Portfolio 0.82% 0.05% 2.24% 5.73% 11.13% n/a n/a
Low Volatility Portfolio 0.97% -1.58% -0.30% 4.22% 5.73% 26.11% n/a
Moderate Portfolio 1.67% -0.43% 1.02% 6.96% 8.58% 38.97% 58.46%
Ready To Retire ETFdb Portfolio 0.89% -0.03% 1.99% 8.11% 9.01% 30.22% 51.12%
As Of 12-19-2014
Regional ETFdb Portfolios

Our regional strategies all ended up in green territory as bullish euphoria was prevalent all over the globe. Our Africa-Centric Portfolio turned in the best weekly performance while our Emerging & Frontier Markets Portfolio came in last place.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Africa-Centric Portfolio 0.22% -10.15% -13.64% -5.70% -4.04% 17.50% n/a
Asia-Centric ETFdb Portfolio 0.23% -2.91% -3.51% 2.05% 4.68% 24.31% n/a
BRIC-or-Bust ETFdb Portfolio -0.03% -10.36% -12.74% -7.33% -5.83% -2.78% n/a
Easy-As-ABC ETFdb Portfolio -0.18% -4.69% -5.76% -6.32% -10.04% n/a n/a
Emerging & Frontier Markets ETFdb Portfolio 0.60% -6.97% -9.22% -3.64% -2.23% 8.75% n/a
Euro Free Europe Portfolio 1.32% -7.46% -11.18% -12.38% -9.48% 23.63% n/a
Ex-Europe ETFdb Portfolio 1.76% -1.67% -0.99% 5.87% 7.46% 35.87% 53.04%
Ex-U.S. Portfolio 1.23% -3.04% -4.74% -1.78% 0.54% 29.00% 26.05%
Global Titans ETFdb Portfolio 0.22% -0.58% -1.82% 1.12% 3.10% 44.05% n/a
LatAm Centric ETFdb Portfolio 0.45% -8.24% -14.33% -14.44% -12.91% n/a n/a
As Of 12-19-2014
Themed ETFdb Portfolios

Choppy trading in the second half of the week left some of our themed strategies in negative territory; among the best performers were the High Tech Portfolio and the RAFI Portfolio, while the Simple Safe Haven Portfolio and GLD-Free Gold Bug Portfolio turned in the worst performances.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Actively-Managed ETF Portfolio -0.12% -1.17% -2.17% 2.14% 3.39% n/a n/a
2012 ETFdb Portfolio 2.18% -5.28% -7.21% -0.60% 2.11% n/a n/a
AlphaDEX ETFdb Portfolio 1.93% -2.27% -3.28% -0.17% 1.94% 33.36% n/a
Alpha Seeker Portfolio 2.0 1.18% -0.09% 2.75% 8.96% 11.87% 45.38% n/a
Baby Boomers ETFdb Portfolio 1.90% 1.85% 6.36% 17.14% 22.64% 100.67% n/a
Ben Graham 50/50 Portfolio 0.67% -0.63% 0.39% 4.54% 6.74% n/a n/a
Better-Than-AGG Total Bond Market ETFdb Portfolio 0.24% -0.66% -0.59% 3.44% 3.41% 7.16% n/a
Black Swan Hyperinflation Portfolio 1.37% -5.88% -10.19% -10.96% -9.41% -14.24% -3.90%
Commodity Guru ETFdb Portfolio 1.05% -6.07% -8.06% -7.94% -6.73% 2.53% n/a
Cheapskate Hedge Fund ETFdb Portfolio 0.93% -0.23% -0.77% 1.89% 2.89% 1.63% n/a
Energy Bull ETFdb Portfolio 5.75% -10.34% -15.19% -11.92% -9.52% 10.00% n/a
Equal Weight ETFdb Portfolio 1.59% -0.03% 0.94% 5.67% 7.41% n/a n/a
Financials Free ETFdb Portfolio 1.59% -1.55% -1.44% 4.69% 6.49% 35.44% 58.07%
Futures Free Commodity ETFdb Portfolio 1.34% -5.89% -10.43% -11.40% -9.56% -14.34% n/a
GLD-Free Gold Bug ETFdb Portfolio -1.85% -4.92% -11.60% -4.02% -3.79% -38.40% n/a
Greedy When Others Are Fearful ETFdb Portfolio 1.21% 0.25% 0.84% 6.86% n/a n/a n/a
High-Tax Bracket ETF Portfolio 1.02% -0.73% -0.37% 6.23% 8.14% 39.93% 55.23%
High Tech ETFdb Portfolio 2.46% 2.97% 8.88% 16.37% 19.95% n/a n/a
High Yield ETFdb Portfolio 1.93% -0.94% 0.76% 7.82% 9.72% 46.34% 74.53%
King Dollar ETFdb Portfolio 1.41% -1.14% 0.94% 7.68% 8.69% 29.35% n/a
Kitchen Sink ETFdb Portfolio 1.40% -2.29% -2.93% 0.11% 1.70% 29.66% n/a
Monthly Dividend ETFdb Portfolio 1.90% -0.27% 1.04% 8.24% 9.91% 38.51% n/a
Pure Growth ETFdb Portfolio 1.74% -2.81% -3.73% 1.26% 3.03% n/a n/a
Pure Value ETFdb Portfolio 1.78% -2.53% -3.62% 2.30% 4.38% n/a n/a
RAFI ETFdb Portfolio 2.26% -3.11% -4.26% 0.14% 3.09% 52.09% 62.46%
Simple (But Effective) Safe Haven ETFdb Portfolio 0.12% -1.03% 0.27% 5.33% 6.87% 21.74% 43.39%
Small Cap ETFdb Portfolio 1.43% -1.58% -2.51% -0.08% 2.28% 40.02% n/a
The Sky Is Falling Portfolio -0.83% -0.83% -0.96% -2.42% -1.84% 1.00% 16.55%
Socially Responsible ETFdb Portfolio 1.06% -0.80% 1.24% 4.28% 7.84% n/a n/a
Risk On ETFdb Portfolio 0.90% -4.07% -6.28% -1.32% 0.24% n/a n/a
Consumer Centric ETFdb Portfolio -0.42% -2.18% -1.56% 0.97% 3.48% n/a n/a
Agri-Bull ETFdb Portfolio 1.03% -3.13% 0.23% 0.01% 1.59% 17.31% n/a
8% Yield ETFdb Portfolio 2.11% -4.53% -4.94% 0.20% 2.07% n/a n/a
Mining Boom ETFdb Portfolio 1.28% -7.08% -12.88% -10.86% -8.28% n/a n/a
2013 ETFdb Portfolio 1.23% -4.56% -4.26% 2.83% 5.36% 45.48% n/a
As Of 12-19-2014

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.