Bull Train Hits Resistance Again

by on October 20, 2012 | Updated October 22, 2012 | ETFs Mentioned:

The bulls kicked off trading on Wall Street, but the bears certainly got the last laugh as major indexes settled just about where they started the week by Friday’s closing bell. Encouraging retail sales and housing market data collided with an uptick in weekly jobless claims along with a string of sour earnings from bellwethers like IBM, Google and Chipotle. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 Index failed to settle above the 1,470 level for a third time in the past two months, opening up the doors to profit-taking pressures [see Free 7 Simple & Cheap All-ETF Model Portfolios].

Actionable ETF Trade Ideas

Last Week’s Actionable ETF Ideas
Ticker Position Week Performance
KRE

Long

-1.1%
SPLV

Long

+0.6%
EWY

Long

-0.1%

Our picks from Monday’s Insider posted a negative performance results during an otherwise up-down week on Wall Street.  Below, we highlight how our trade ideas fared during the week [sign up for a free trial of ETFdb Pro to get actionable ETF ideas every Monday, as well as access to more than 45 all-ETF model portfolios].

Trade #1 Long KRE: Down 1.1%

This trade got off to an encouraging start as KRE held above support as anticipated on Monday. Earnings-induced profit-taking fears knocked this ETF below our outlined stop-loss at $28 a share, however, leaving us with a frustrating loss on the week. It should be noted that this trade would have ended up in red territory regardless as it managed to end the week below the $28 mark.

Trade #2 Long SPLV: Up 0.6%

This was perhaps our most frustrating recommendation on the week as Friday’s nasty sell-off wiped out nearly all of our gains. SPLV kicked off the week on a bullish note and managed to extend its gains through Thursday as several encouraging economic data releases hit the street. Selling pressures struck quick and hard in virtually every corner of the market on Friday, sending this ETF back below $28.50 a share, and leaving us with a minimal gain on the week.

Trade #3 Long  EWY: Down 0.1%

Similar to our SPLV trade, this recommendation also turned sour in the final day of trading this week. EWY bounced off support on Monday and continued to inch higher the following days within its upward sloping trading-range. However, as selling pressures hit Wall Street on Friday, investors were especially quick to take profits in foreign markets, sinking EWY just below Monday’s opening price.

ETFdb Portfolios

Retirement ETFdb Portfolios

Our retirement portfolios held up quite well as the “risk off” trade encouraged inflows to the safe havens, paving the way higher for our bond-heavy strategies. Year-to-date, the best performing strategy is the 20 Years Til Retirement followed closely by our 30 Years Til Retirement and the Aggressive Portfolio.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
5 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 1.15% 2.68% 1.76% 8.77% 10.04% 49.15% 64.72%
10 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 1.28% 3.13% 1.38% 9.48% 11.08% 55.58% 70.04%
20 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 1.40% 3.33% 1.18% 10.53% 13.23% 64.01% 79.78%
30 Years Til Retirement Portfolio 1.58% 3.67% 1.13% 10.30% 12.53% 69.83% 87.17%
Aggressive Portfolio 1.60% 2.89% -1.59% 6.15% 8.00% 51.73% n/a
Cheapskate Portfolio 1.13% 2.26% 2.56% 7.33% 12.39% n/a n/a
Low Volatility Portfolio 0.65% 1.44% 0.33% 6.09% 6.60% 32.06% n/a
Moderate Portfolio 1.51% 2.57% 0.54% 8.03% 9.21% 46.17% 59.68%
Ready To Retire ETFdb Portfolio 1.08% 1.99% 1.33% 8.55% 8.98% 35.00% 51.72%
As Of 11-26-2014
Regional ETFdb Portfolios

Encouraging earnings in Europe along with fairly “tame” headlines surrounding Spain bailout talks bolstered our Euro Free Europe Portfolio. Year-to-date, the best performing regional strategy remains the Africa Centric Portfolio.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Africa-Centric Portfolio 0.09% 0.24% -7.17% 4.03% 7.16% 33.94% n/a
Asia-Centric ETFdb Portfolio 0.99% 1.20% -2.62% 5.35% 6.60% 30.45% n/a
BRIC-or-Bust ETFdb Portfolio 1.76% 1.37% -6.70% 1.38% 2.71% 5.89% n/a
Easy-As-ABC ETFdb Portfolio -0.26% -0.76% -5.28% -2.75% -7.90% n/a n/a
Emerging & Frontier Markets ETFdb Portfolio 1.46% 0.90% -5.10% 3.36% 3.71% 19.41% n/a
Euro Free Europe Portfolio 0.72% 2.15% -5.89% -6.00% -3.30% 37.65% n/a
Ex-Europe ETFdb Portfolio 1.33% 2.28% -0.66% 7.91% 9.03% 43.48% 54.99%
Ex-U.S. Portfolio 1.44% 1.92% -3.95% 1.90% 3.38% 37.78% 26.81%
Global Titans ETFdb Portfolio 0.94% 3.22% -0.65% 2.82% 4.32% 50.91% n/a
LatAm Centric ETFdb Portfolio 2.63% 1.15% -8.42% -5.90% -5.49% n/a n/a
As Of 11-26-2014
Themed ETFdb Portfolios

Our GLD-Free Gold Bug Portfolio sank lower on the week as gold futures prices dropped off below $1,750 an ounce. Amid resurfacing uncertainty on Wall Street, our 2012 ETFdb Portfolio managed to climb higher, gaining upwards of 20% from a year-to-date perspective.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Actively-Managed ETF Portfolio 0.97% 2.83% -0.87% 3.95% 4.85% n/a n/a
2012 ETFdb Portfolio 1.35% 2.22% -3.30% 5.05% 7.62% n/a n/a
AlphaDEX ETFdb Portfolio 1.45% 2.04% -3.12% 2.34% 3.75% 41.70% n/a
Alpha Seeker Portfolio 2.0 0.52% 2.21% 2.60% 9.22% 12.19% 50.03% n/a
Baby Boomers ETFdb Portfolio 1.36% 3.49% 5.75% 15.88% 20.05% 108.21% n/a
Ben Graham 50/50 Portfolio 1.07% 1.92% 0.44% 5.99% 7.52% n/a n/a
Better-Than-AGG Total Bond Market ETFdb Portfolio 0.68% -0.01% -0.85% 4.52% 4.02% 9.78% n/a
Black Swan Hyperinflation Portfolio 0.51% -0.99% -9.97% -6.70% -6.73% -10.96% -2.52%
Commodity Guru ETFdb Portfolio 0.67% 0.02% -5.79% -2.69% -1.54% 8.63% n/a
Cheapskate Hedge Fund ETFdb Portfolio 0.29% 0.79% -0.53% 1.76% 2.49% 2.91% n/a
Energy Bull ETFdb Portfolio -0.02% -0.22% -10.32% -3.99% -2.84% 22.45% n/a
Equal Weight ETFdb Portfolio 1.43% 1.94% 0.70% 6.79% 8.13% n/a n/a
Financials Free ETFdb Portfolio 0.99% 2.04% -0.53% 6.74% 8.24% 43.83% 60.32%
Futures Free Commodity ETFdb Portfolio 0.62% -0.07% -9.64% -6.67% -6.19% -8.72% n/a
GLD-Free Gold Bug ETFdb Portfolio 2.19% -0.29% -13.86% 0.21% -2.99% -38.77% n/a
Greedy When Others Are Fearful ETFdb Portfolio 1.19% 1.87% 1.72% 8.54% n/a n/a n/a
High-Tax Bracket ETF Portfolio 1.07% 2.46% 0.46% 7.43% 8.94% 45.91% 57.76%
High Tech ETFdb Portfolio 2.08% 5.35% 8.35% 15.87% 20.04% n/a n/a
High Yield ETFdb Portfolio 1.44% 2.47% 0.34% 9.22% 10.42% 56.39% 77.19%
King Dollar ETFdb Portfolio 1.19% 3.11% 2.30% 9.17% 9.75% 34.76% n/a
Kitchen Sink ETFdb Portfolio 0.86% 1.44% -2.01% 2.48% 3.77% 35.04% n/a
Monthly Dividend ETFdb Portfolio 1.23% 1.58% 0.25% 9.25% 10.23% 46.36% n/a
Pure Growth ETFdb Portfolio 1.44% 1.82% -1.79% 4.83% 6.52% n/a n/a
Pure Value ETFdb Portfolio 0.97% 1.92% -2.83% 5.02% 6.71% n/a n/a
RAFI ETFdb Portfolio 2.18% 3.61% -2.49% 3.98% 6.34% 65.12% 65.61%
Simple (But Effective) Safe Haven ETFdb Portfolio 0.69% 1.58% -0.64% 6.44% 6.34% 26.68% 43.35%
Small Cap ETFdb Portfolio 1.67% 1.68% -2.76% 2.07% 3.79% 47.38% n/a
The Sky Is Falling Portfolio -0.10% -1.12% -2.65% -1.80% -2.25% 4.15% 16.99%
Socially Responsible ETFdb Portfolio 0.91% 0.85% 1.24% 5.21% 8.70% n/a n/a
Risk On ETFdb Portfolio 1.74% 3.14% -3.05% 4.47% 5.13% n/a n/a
Consumer Centric ETFdb Portfolio 0.42% 3.13% -0.56% 3.77% 5.20% n/a n/a
Agri-Bull ETFdb Portfolio 0.35% 1.89% 1.10% 3.12% 3.71% 21.34% n/a
8% Yield ETFdb Portfolio 1.03% 1.07% -3.13% 5.38% 6.77% n/a n/a
Mining Boom ETFdb Portfolio 2.12% -0.27% -13.12% -4.75% -3.80% n/a n/a
2013 ETFdb Portfolio 1.28% 3.47% -0.69% 8.13% 9.46% 60.60% n/a
As Of 11-26-2014

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.