Stocks Drift As “Fiscal Cliff” Nears

by on December 8, 2012 | ETFs Mentioned:

Aside from short-lived spurts of optimism and pessimism fueled by dramatic headlines, equity markets remained fairly calm this week as looming “fiscal cliff” woes kept a lid on investors’ confidence. On the international front, the Reserve Bank of Australia cautiously lowered its benchmark interest rate down to 3.0% while eurozone GDP contracted by 0.6% for the quarter. At home, economic releases were generally upbeat throughout the week; investors digested better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data along with a decrease in the unemployment rate, marking another stride forward in the sluggish domestic labor market recovery [see Free 7 Simple & Cheap All- ETF Model Portfolios].

Actionable ETF Trade Ideas

Our picks from Monday’s Insider posted disappointing performance results as sideways price action on Wall Street threw off the timing on two of our recommendations. Below, we highlight how our trade ideas fared during the week [sign up for a free trial of ETFdb Pro to get actionable ETF ideas every Monday, as well as access to more than 45 all-ETF model portfolios].

Last Week’s Actionable ETF Ideas
Ticker Position Week Performance
HYG

Short

-0.4%
IYT

Short

No Change
GLD

Long

-0.7%

Trade #1 Short HYG: Down 0.4%

This recommendation turned sour right from the start of the week as our bearish suspicions proved to be incorrect. HYG was able to drift higher towards its previous resistance level just under $94 a share; as a result, our stop-loss at $93.25 was triggered on Wednesday, leaving us with a small loss on the week.

Trade #2 Short IYT: No Change

Despite starting off the week right near the upper boundary of its price channel, IYT was able to defy our expected resistance level and push higher. This trade did get off to an encouraging start as shares tanked lower on Monday; however, buyers stepped in on Tuesday and IYT climbed higher through the closing bell on Friday, settling just shy of our outlined stop-loss at the $92 level.

Trade #3 Long GLD: Down 0.7%

This trade took a turn for the worst early in the week as GLD opened right around our stop-loss at $165 a share on Tuesday, prompting us to close out of the trade. Luckily, we didn’t miss out on much upside as GLD settled below Monday’s opening price as the trading week drew to a close.

ETFdb Portfolios

Retirement ETFdb Portfolios

All of our retirement strategies fared well as looming uncertainties stemming from the fiscal cliff paved the way higher for fixed income securities. Our Aggressive Portfolio was the best performer on the week, with our Cheapskate Portfolio trailing closely behind.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
5 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -1.56% -2.72% -1.29% 4.10% 8.75% 44.85% 61.36%
10 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -1.97% -3.49% -1.98% 4.37% 9.47% 50.89% 67.00%
20 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -2.21% -4.11% -2.66% 4.69% 10.70% 58.44% 75.65%
30 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -2.71% -5.07% -3.51% 3.85% 9.71% 63.76% 81.26%
Aggressive Portfolio -3.16% -5.77% -4.69% 2.00% 6.50% 48.43% n/a
Cheapskate Portfolio -0.55% -0.91% 1.68% 6.22% 11.82% n/a n/a
Low Volatility Portfolio -1.27% -2.67% -1.41% 3.04% 4.94% n/a n/a
Moderate Portfolio -1.69% -3.73% -2.55% 3.51% 7.15% 41.74% n/a
Ready To Retire ETFdb Portfolio -0.78% -2.09% -0.71% 4.81% 7.43% 32.04% 50.00%
As Of 10-01-2014
Regional ETFdb Portfolios

Among our regional strategies, the BRIC-Or-Bust Portfolio turned in the best performance, while the Ex-Europe Portfolio came in last place.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Africa-Centric Portfolio -1.97% -6.20% -3.21% 4.97% 10.75% 33.05% n/a
Asia-Centric ETFdb Portfolio -3.02% -5.86% -4.12% 2.11% 4.35% 25.82% n/a
BRIC-or-Bust ETFdb Portfolio -5.39% -9.99% -6.88% -0.89% 1.07% 3.53% n/a
Easy-As-ABC ETFdb Portfolio -2.07% -6.04% -4.06% -1.59% -8.39% n/a n/a
Emerging & Frontier Markets ETFdb Portfolio -3.45% -6.88% -4.68% 1.96% 1.94% 19.31% n/a
Euro Free Europe Portfolio -3.62% -6.11% -8.41% -6.33% -2.41% 34.75% n/a
Ex-Europe ETFdb Portfolio -1.88% -4.25% -2.23% 4.22% 7.74% 39.49% 53.18%
Ex-U.S. Portfolio -2.78% -6.11% -5.67% -0.24% 2.67% 34.10% 29.43%
Global Titans ETFdb Portfolio -1.63% -3.10% -3.80% 0.42% 4.85% 43.28% n/a
LatAm Centric ETFdb Portfolio -3.61% -9.97% -6.70% -5.29% -7.87% n/a n/a
As Of 10-01-2014
Themed ETFdb Portfolios

Our themed strategies ended up largely in green territory; among the best performers were the Greedy When Others Are Fearful Portfolio and the Equal Weight Portfolio, while our GLD-Free Gold Bug Portfolio turned in the worst results on the week.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Actively-Managed ETF Portfolio -2.15% -3.60% -2.06% 1.40% 4.04% n/a n/a
2012 ETFdb Portfolio -2.44% -4.63% -5.28% 3.27% 9.73% n/a n/a
AlphaDEX ETFdb Portfolio -2.93% -5.87% -5.74% -0.62% 3.00% 39.45% n/a
Alpha Seeker Portfolio 2.0 -1.92% -2.94% -0.69% 4.76% 9.69% 45.67% n/a
Baby Boomers ETFdb Portfolio -2.79% -2.96% -0.86% 7.72% 18.01% 94.77% n/a
Ben Graham 50/50 Portfolio -1.00% -2.23% -0.52% 4.12% 7.58% n/a n/a
Better-Than-AGG Total Bond Market ETFdb Portfolio -0.04% -1.20% -0.50% 3.91% 3.96% 9.52% n/a
Black Swan Hyperinflation Portfolio -2.19% -6.59% -10.22% -3.67% -4.85% -4.04% 11.00%
Commodity Guru ETFdb Portfolio -2.42% -5.65% -7.56% -2.85% -1.42% 11.09% n/a
Cheapskate Hedge Fund ETFdb Portfolio -0.49% -0.63% -0.22% 1.97% 2.79% 2.68% n/a
Energy Bull ETFdb Portfolio -3.11% -7.44% -8.65% -0.48% 3.34% 34.48% n/a
Equal Weight ETFdb Portfolio -1.38% -3.27% -1.13% 3.81% 6.96% n/a n/a
Financials Free ETFdb Portfolio -1.37% -3.01% -2.86% 4.13% 9.04% 39.96% 63.25%
Futures Free Commodity ETFdb Portfolio -3.47% -8.31% -10.42% -5.56% -6.46% -5.77% n/a
GLD-Free Gold Bug ETFdb Portfolio -1.48% -9.71% -13.69% 4.04% -6.29% -35.53% n/a
Greedy When Others Are Fearful ETFdb Portfolio -0.51% -0.51% 2.04% 7.48% n/a n/a n/a
High-Tax Bracket ETF Portfolio -1.83% -2.81% -1.67% 4.20% 7.81% 42.59% 54.13%
High Tech ETFdb Portfolio -1.02% -0.62% 4.67% 10.93% 18.22% n/a n/a
High Yield ETFdb Portfolio -1.65% -4.28% -2.98% 4.20% 8.22% 50.69% 71.05%
King Dollar ETFdb Portfolio -1.09% -1.54% 0.94% 5.30% 7.92% 31.14% n/a
Kitchen Sink ETFdb Portfolio -1.89% -3.86% -4.52% 0.58% 4.14% 34.44% n/a
Monthly Dividend ETFdb Portfolio -1.21% -3.79% -2.71% 4.91% 8.59% 41.75% n/a
Pure Growth ETFdb Portfolio -2.71% -4.78% -4.56% 1.75% 6.19% n/a n/a
Pure Value ETFdb Portfolio -3.30% -6.11% -5.43% 1.45% 7.57% n/a n/a
RAFI ETFdb Portfolio -3.91% -7.24% -6.71% -0.67% 5.68% 59.19% 57.51%
Simple (But Effective) Safe Haven ETFdb Portfolio -1.00% -3.62% -5.18% 3.10% 4.19% 22.30% 45.84%
Small Cap ETFdb Portfolio -2.34% -5.46% -6.62% -0.66% 3.07% 44.19% n/a
The Sky Is Falling Portfolio 0.54% -1.25% -1.52% -1.22% -2.52% 4.52% 20.86%
Socially Responsible ETFdb Portfolio -0.94% -2.37% -0.32% 3.15% 8.31% n/a n/a
Risk On ETFdb Portfolio -3.01% -4.24% -5.15% 3.14% 7.35% n/a n/a
Consumer Centric ETFdb Portfolio -1.86% -3.84% -4.19% 0.09% 4.77% n/a n/a
Agri-Bull ETFdb Portfolio -1.33% -3.88% -7.78% -1.04% 1.00% 17.15% n/a
8% Yield ETFdb Portfolio -2.02% -5.51% -5.60% 2.43% 5.75% n/a n/a
Mining Boom ETFdb Portfolio -3.11% -10.86% -12.38% -2.83% -6.14% n/a n/a
2013 ETFdb Portfolio -2.58% -4.16% -3.52% 4.46% 6.74% 57.90% n/a
As Of 10-01-2014

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.