Better Balance?

People knew, of course, that the markets were out of balance at the end of the first half. The S&P 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the Russell 1000 Growth Index had been sailing to new highs. Sentiment and valuations were high. The performance gap between large cap growth and anything value-oriented or small cap was huge. The underlying business and economic metrics were still solid, although there were some signs of weakness at the margin. The 10-year treasury yield had settled into a nice range in the low 4% area. But like a game of musical chairs, where the music has been playing for a while, people were looking around for where the seats were.

It just took one CPI report to kick things off. The piece of data that the markets would interpret as giving the Fed the confidence they would need to start the rate lowering cycle. Just like that, the year-to-date winners (in general) were sold, with particular emphasis on tech and growth. Small cap and value were bought. But not just a little. It wasn’t like buyers and sellers cautiously tippytoed from one side of the boat to the other. They dove and dragged all their luggage with them. The move to a better balance had begun.

Where does the better balance settle out? Inflation continues to move lower toward the Fed’s target of 2% and seems to be the best news for economic stability. There is not a lot of fear, at this point, that inflation is going to spike back up. Consumer ability to spend and actual spending continues to normalize lower. Business spending is dwindling somewhat as well. Job openings and gains continue to move lower, while claims and the unemployment rate are edging higher. If the employment data stayed where they are now or even drifted a little, that re-balance would probably be looked upon favorably. The fear here, though, is potentially being at a tipping point where employment re-balances into a recession.

Earnings growth for the S&P500 is still rebalancing higher. It flipped from negative to positive in 3Q23 and has accelerated to an estimated 11.5% in 2Q24. The full year for 2024 is expected to grow 10.8% and 2025 is currently expected to grow 14.8%. More importantly, this growth is expected to broaden out across the economic sectors rather than being concentrated in just a couple. This rebalancing of earnings growth could potentially add to the sustainability of these other sectors’ stock prices and performance.

Valuation, style performance, positioning and market performance have only re-balanced a little. Valuations are still high. The gap between the year-to-date performance of growth versus value and large versus small has narrowed but it is still large. For the time being, it has stopped narrowing and reversed. This signals less of a sustained rotation and perhaps more a clearing of a little excess and the creation of a perceived buying opportunity. Similarly, the downturn in the stock market in general has not been particularly painful in that the major indices are still positive for the year. Also mitigating any semblance of pain is that the markets have also reversed back upward in the last couple of days. Re-balancings, however, are processes, and the drivers of this one are still very much in place and will take a good bit longer to work out. This could be resolved in many different directions.

We recommend being cautious with any portfolio adjustments. We do not believe now is the time for major adjustments to risk profile or exposure. Our asset allocation strategies are designed and managed to make measured adjustments to incoming information and take advantage of dislocations and opportunities as they arise.

Source: FactSet