Here’s how stocks may perform for the rest of 2024
As the fall harvest season begins, it’s a time of reaping the rewards of hard work. For investors, could it mean the potential for positive stock market gains by year-end?
The argument: Over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 6% return from Labor Day through the end of December—and has been in positive territory over that period in 13 out of those 15 years (see the chart).
S&P 500 Performance, Labor Day – End of Calendar Year
That said, the path to those profits has often been rocky. Over the past 15 years, for example, September has been the S&P 500’s worst month average—posting a negative monthly return in the past four years.
We can’t know with certainty how the remaining 80 or so trading days of 2024 will treat investors. But we see reasons to be optimistic that stocks will benefit from a tailwind going into the final months of the year. For example:
The Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates at its next meeting later this month—a move expected to help support stock prices.
- Corporate earnings to look solid.
- Economic growth is expected to be a healthy 2.0% in the third quarter, given data thus far.
- Inflation continues to decline toward the Fed’s target level of 2%.
Of course, there are plenty of opportunities for volatility along the way—particularly in light of the upcoming Presidential election. But as the chart above shows, stocks came out ahead from Labor Day through year-end in all of the past three election years.
The upshot: If history repeats, the fall harvest has the potential to be a good one for investors.
Originally published September 5, 2025
For more news, information, and analysis, visit the ETF Strategist Channel.
The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. Reference to an index does not imply that any account will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to that index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility, or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information obtained from third party sources is believed reliable but has not been vetted by the firm or its personnel.
This commentary is written by Horizon Investments’ asset management team. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This report does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances that may be relevant to any company, industry, or security mentioned herein. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. It is for the general information of clients of Horizon Investments, LLC (“Horizon”). This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any analysis, advice, or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Investors may realize losses on any investments. Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. All investing involves the risk of loss.
The investments recommended by Horizon Investments are not guaranteed. There can be economic times when all investments are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Clients may lose money. This commentary is based on public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The opinions expressed herein are our opinions as of the date of this document. These opinions may not be reflected in all of our strategies. We do not intend to and will not endeavor to update the information discussed in this document. No part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without Horizon’s prior written consent. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Other disclosure information is available at www.horizoninvestments.com.
Horizon Investments and the Horizon H are registered trademarks of Horizon Investments, LLC
©2024 Horizon Investments, LLC.