April 2025 Chart Pack Summary: ‘Headline Hell’ Hits, Economy Showing Resilience

• PMI surveys suggest US economy is slowing, but not recessionary.
• Similar surveys also suggest corporate earnings are showing resilience, in our view.
• While tariff policy is a wild card, longer-term inflation expectations have stayed anchored.

We are excited to release our April 2025 Chart Pack , our visual quarterly designed to walk investors through what is happening in markets and why, what may come next, and how we are positioning RiverFront portfolios. In today’s Weekly View, we picked three Chart Pack visuals to highlight.

After a promising January, this year has devolved into ‘Headline Hell’ — a nerve-jangling twilight zone where the US stock market convulses over every White House utterance. The Trump Administration’s early focus on tariff policy has ushered in a heightened state of uncertainty, as the market attempts to handicap politics’ impact on US inflation and economic growth.

However, underneath the chaos of ‘Headline Hell’, we believe the US economy continues to show signs of resilience. Employment and credit have held in relatively well despite the uncertainty and corporate earnings thus far appear resilient, in our view.

Our investment team views monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys as a useful forward-looking indicator of economic and earnings health, in our view. Should the economy and earnings continue to expand – as Services PMI (Chart 1) and Composite PMI survey readings over 50 (Chart 2, next page) suggest -  we believe this recent pullback will end up representing an attractive opportunity for longer-term focused investors, though visibility for the market in the near-term remains low. We will continue to monitor inflation expectations (Chart 3, next page) and earnings for signs of deterioration … but for now are viewing ‘Headline Hell’ as a transitory phase.

Originally published by RiverFront Investment Group.

For more news, information, and analysis, visit the ETF Strategist Channel.

All investments in securities, including the strategies discussed above, include a risk of loss of principal (invested amount) and any profits that have not been realized. Markets fluctuate substantially over time, and have experienced increased volatility in recent years due to global and domestic economic events. Performance of any investment is not guaranteed. In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. Investments in international and emerging markets securities include exposure to risks such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets and political instability. Please see the end of this publication for more disclosures.

The comments above refer generally to financial markets and not RiverFront portfolios or any related performance. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. All investments carry some level of risk, including loss of principal. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. 

Information or data shown or used in this material was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. 

This report does not provide recipients with information or advice that is sufficient on which to base an investment decision. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or need of any particular client and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Recipients should consider the contents of this report as a single factor in making an investment decision. Additional fundamental and other analyses would be required to make an investment decision about any individual security identified in this report.  

Chartered Financial Analyst is a professional designation given by the CFA Institute (formerly AIMR) that measures the competence and integrity of financial analysts. Candidates are required to pass three levels of exams covering areas such as accounting, economics, ethics, money management and security analysis. Four years of investment/financial career experience are required before one can become a CFA charterholder. Enrollees in the program must hold a bachelor’s degree.

All charts shown for illustrative purposes only. Technical analysis is based on the study of historical price movements and past trend patterns. There are no assurances that movements or trends can or will be duplicated in the future.

Stocks represent partial ownership of a corporation. If the corporation does well, its value increases, and investors share in the appreciation. However, if it goes bankrupt, or performs poorly, investors can lose their entire initial investment (i.e., the stock price can go to zero).  Bonds represent a loan made by an investor to a corporation or government.  As such, the investor gets a guaranteed interest rate for a specific period of time and expects to get their original investment back at the end of that time period, along with the interest earned. Investment risk is repayment of the principal (amount invested). In the event of a bankruptcy or other corporate disruption, bonds are senior to stocks.  Investors should be aware of these differences prior to investing.

In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa). This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities). Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Lower-quality fixed income securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Foreign investments involve greater risks than U.S. investments, and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, and economic risks. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index measures the performance of 500 large cap stocks, which together represent about 80% of the total US equities market.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. The indicator is compiled and released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a nonprofit supply management organization.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all finished goods and services made within a country during a specific period. GDP provides an economic snapshot of a country, used to estimate the size of an economy and growth rate.

A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth indicate a recession. However, more complex formulas are also used to determine recessions.

Inflation is a gradual loss of purchasing power, reflected in a broad rise in prices for goods and services over time.  

When referring to being “overweight” or “underweight” relative to a market or asset class, RiverFront is referring to our current portfolios’ weightings compared to the composite benchmarks for each portfolio. Asset class weighting discussion refers to our Advantage portfolios.

RiverFront Investment Group, LLC (“RiverFront”), is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or expertise. Any discussion of specific securities is provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security mentioned. RiverFront is affiliated with Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), member FINRA/SIPC, from its minority ownership interest in RiverFront. RiverFront is owned primarily by its employees through RiverFront Investment Holding Group, LLC, the holding company for RiverFront. Baird Financial Corporation (BFC) is a minority owner of RiverFront Investment Holding Group, LLC and therefore an indirect owner of RiverFront. BFC is the parent company of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, a registered broker/dealer and investment adviser.  

To review other risks and more information about RiverFront, please visit the website at riverfrontig.com and the Form ADV, Part 2A. Copyright ©2025 RiverFront Investment Group. All Rights Reserved. ID 4444462