ETFdb Logo
  • ETF Database
  • Channels
    • Themes
      • Active ETF
      • Alternatives Channel
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • China Insights
      • Climate Insights
      • Core Strategies
      • Crypto
      • Disruptive Technology
      • Energy Infrastructure
      • ETF Building Blocks
      • ETF Education
      • ETF Investing
      • ETF Strategist
      • Faith-Based Investing
      • Financial Literacy
      • Fixed Income
      • Free Cash Flow
      • Innovative ETFs
      • Invest Beyond Cash
      • Leveraged & Inverse
      • Modern Alpha
      • Portfolio Strategies
      • Tax Efficient Income
    • Asset Class
      • Equity
        • U.S. Equity
        • Int'l Developed
        • Emerging Market Equities
      • Alternatives
        • Gold/Silver/Critical Materials
        • Crypytocurrency
        • Currency
        • Volatility
      • Fixed Income
        • Investment Grade Corporates
        • US Treasuries & TIPS
        • High Yield Corporates
        • Int'l Fixed Income
    • ETF Ecosystem
    • ETFs in Canada
    • Market Outlook
  • Tools
    • ETF Screener
    • ETF Country Exposure Tool
    • ETF Database Categories
    • Indexes
    • Scenario Analysis
    • Watchlists
    • Head-To-Head ETF Comparison Tool
    • Mutual Fund To ETF Converter
    • ETF Stock Exposure Tool
    • ETF Issuer Fund Flows
  • Research
    • ETF Education
    • Equity Investing
    • Dividend ETFs
    • Leveraged ETFs
    • Inverse ETFs
    • Index Education
    • Index Insights
    • Top ETF Sectors
    • Top ETF Issuers
    • Top ETF Industries
  • Webcasts
  • Themes
    • AI ETFs
    • Blockchain ETFs
    • See all Thematic Investing ETF themes
    • ESG Investing
    • Marijuana ETFs
  • Multimedia
    • ETF 360 Video Series
    • ETF of the Week Podcast
    • Gaining Perspective Podcast
    • ETF Prime Podcast
    • Video
  • Company
    • About VettaFi
    • Get VettaFi’ed
  • PRO
    • Pro Content
    • Pro Tools
    • Advanced
    • FAQ
    • Pricing
    • Free Sign Up
    • Login
  1. ETF Strategist Channel
  2. Running of the Bulls: Wall Street and Pamplona
ETF Strategist Channel
Share

Running of the Bulls: Wall Street and Pamplona

Day Hagan Management   Jul 20, 2023
2023-07-20

Summary

Within the context of the S&P 500’s continuing uptrend, and because of the bulls run on Wall Street last week (and in Pamplona, Spain recently), areas of potential selling pressure (resistance) loom overhead. This is coupled with the arrival of earnings season. Unless this is resolved above the areas of resistance, we think a period of sideways consolidation or minor pullback shouldn’t be surprising.

Lines = Potential Pressure

Figure 1: NYSE Advance – Decline Line (all issues) and DJIA. | While this is a much better indicator for discerning tops, it is useful to discern upside participation levels, which have occurred since the beginning of June. Currently, the A/D Line has moved into an area of resistance. The key now is, will it pivot lower or resolve higher?


Content continues below advertisement

NYAD Advance Decline

We’re also monitoring:

  • Seasonality (NDR’s S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023): Favorable seasonal factors taper off until Q4. (Figure 2)
  • S&P 500 support: SP500 at 4444 (gap, very short-term), 4385 +/- (short-term), 4325 to 4300.
  • S. Dollar Index: While oversold short-term, the index has broken down longer-term, which has many cross-asset ramifications ranging from equities (historically supportive overall, including overseas versus domestic), commodities (historically supportive), and currencies. (Figure 3)
  • Banks: Big and Regionals remain range bound and at resistance. (Figure 4)
  • Speaking of “Range Bound,” as highlighted in last week’s report, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index ($TNX/37.97 – 3.79%) remains “Stuck in the Middle with You” (Stealers Wheel, 1972), between resistance at 41 /- and support at 33/-, including higher support at 36 to 35.5. Please reach out for an up-to-date chart of TNX.

Figure 2: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023. | We note that outside forces can overwhelm cycles and seasonal trends; therefore, we view this as a secondary indicator. Currently, it shows that headwinds are building.

cycle composite 2023

Figure 3. U.S. Dollar Index with Momentum (MACD) – weekly data. | Although we’ve seen a short-term oversold bounce, and it now resides at support, further downside probing is in the cards.

US Dollar Cash Settle

Figure 4. Bank Index and Regional Bank Index – daily chart, post-initial crisis. | A favorable resolve above resistance will increase Small Cap proxies’ odds of a bullish move.

Regional Banking Index

Please let me know if you would like to schedule a call to go over the process and discipline underpinning our Smart Sector with Catastrophic Stop, Smart Sector International, and/or Smart Sector Fixed Income strategies.

Day Hagan Asset Management appreciates being part of your business, either through our research efforts or investment strategies. Please let us know how we can further support you.

Art Huprich, CMT®
Chief Market Technician
Day Hagan Asset Management

—Written 07.17.2023. Chart Source: Stockcharts.com unless otherwise noted.

For more news, information, and analysis, visit the ETF Strategist Channel

Loading Articles...
Our Sites
  • VettaFi
  • Advisor Perspectives
  • ETF Trends
Tools
  • ETF Screener
  • Mutual Fund to ETF Converter
  • Head-To-Head ETF Comparison
  • ETF Country Exposure Tool
  • ETF Stock Exposure Tool
  • ETF Database Pro
More Tools
  • Financial Advisor & RIA Center
Explore ETFs
  • ETF News
  • ETF Category Reports
  • Premium Articles
  • Alphabetical Listing of ETFs
  • Browse ETFs by ETF Database Category
  • Browse ETFs by Index
  • Browse ETFs by Issuer
  • Compare ETFs
Information
  • Contact Us
  • Terms of Use and Privacy Policy
  • © 2025 VettaFi LLC. All rights reserved.

Advertisement

Is Your Portfolio Positioned With Enough Global Exposure?

ETF Education Channel

How to Allocate Commodities in Portfolios

Tom LydonApr 26, 2022
2022-04-26

A long-running debate in asset allocation circles is how much of a portfolio an investor should...

Core Strategies Channel

Why ETFs Experience Limit Up/Down Protections

Karrie GordonMay 13, 2022
2022-05-13

In a digital age where information moves in milliseconds and millions of participants can transact...

}
X