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  1. Fixed Income Channel
  2. Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25
Fixed Income Channel
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Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

Jennifer NashAug 25, 2023
2023-08-25

Note: We’ve updated this commentary with data through the August 25th market close.

The yield on the 10-year note ended August 25, 2023 at 4.25%, the 2-year note ended at 5.03%, and the 30-year at 4.30%.

Here is a table showing the yields’ highs and lows and the FFR since 2007.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

The charts below show the daily performance of several Treasury bonds since the pre-recession days of equity market peaks in 2007.


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Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

The next chart is an overlay of all 6 charts above along with the Fed funds rate (FFR) since 2007.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Here is a long look of the 10-year yield with a start date of 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of “stagflation” (economic stagnation with inflation).

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

Here’s the latest 10-2 spread. Typically, the spread goes negative for a period and then out of the red prior to recessions. The lead time for recessions is quite a range – after going negative, recessions have begun anywhere from 16 to 62 weeks later. We also can see a false positive in 1998 where the spread went negative for a short period. For the 2009 recession, the spread went negative a couple of different times before rising.

If we use the first negative spread date as our starting point, the average number of weeks leading up to a recession is 37, or about nine months. If we use the last positive spread date after being negative before a recession, the average is 17 weeks, or 4.25 months and the median is 14 weeks, or 3.5 months.

As of August 25th, the 10-2 spread has been negative for 288 days

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25
Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.23%. Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average, which began in April of 1971.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

Now let’s see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Federal Reserve intervention. Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 25

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see our latest Treasury Yields in Perspective update.

ETFs associated with treasuries include: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT B-), iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY A-), and iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF B).

For more news, information, and analysis, visit the Fixed Income Channel.

This article was originally written by Doug Short. From 2016-2022, it was improved upon and updated by Jill Mislinski. Starting in January 2023, AP Charts pages will be maintained by Jennifer Nash at VettaFi | Advisor Perspectives

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