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  1. Institutional Income Strategies Channel
  2. Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19
Institutional Income Strategies Channel
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Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

Jennifer NashMay 19, 2023
2023-05-19

The yield on the 10-year note ended May 19, 2023 at 3.70%, the 2-year note ended at 4.28%, and the 30-year at 3.95%.

Here is a table showing the yields’ highs and lows and the FFR since 2007.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

The charts below shows the daily performance of several Treasury bonds since the pre-recession days of equity market peaks in 2007.


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Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

The next chart is an overlay of all 6 charts above along with the Fed funds rate (FFR) since 2007.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

A long-term look at the 10-year yield

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of “stagflation” (economic stagnation with inflation).

Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

Here’s the latest 10-2 spread. Typically, the spread goes negative for a period and then out of the red prior to recessions. The lead time for recessions is quite a range – after going negative, recessions have begun anywhere from 16 to 62 weeks later. We also can see a false positive in 1998 where the spread went negative for a short period. In the last recession, the spread went negative a couple of different times before rising.

If we use the first negative spread date as our starting point, the average number of weeks leading up to a recession is 37, or about nine months. If we use the last positive spread date after being negative before a recession, the average is 17 weeks, or 4.25 months and the median is 14 weeks, or 3.5 months.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19
Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage

The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.39%. Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average, which began in April of 1971.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

Now let’s see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Federal Reserve intervention. Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 19

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see our latest Treasury Yields in Perspective update.

ETFs associated with treasuries include: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT B-), iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY A-), and iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF B).

Note: We’ve updated this commentary with data through the May 19th market close.

Originally published by Advisor Perspectives on May 19, 2023.

For more news, information, and analysis, visit the Institutional Income Strategies Channel.

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