ETFdb Logo
ETFdb Logo
  • ETF Database
  • Channels
    • Active ETF
    • Alternatives
    • Beyond Basic Beta
    • China Insights
    • Climate Insights
    • Commodities
    • Core Strategies
    • Crypto
    • Disruptive Technology
    • Dividend
    • Dual Impact
    • Emerging Markets
    • Energy Infrastructure
    • ESG
    • ETF Building Blocks
    • ETF Education
    • ETF Strategist
    • Fixed Income
    • Free Cash Flow
    • Future ETFs
    • Global Diversification
    • Gold/Silver/Critical Minerals
    • Innovative ETFs
    • Institutional Income Strategies
    • Leveraged & Inverse
    • Managed Futures
    • Market Insights
    • Megatrends
    • Modern Alpha
    • Multi-Asset
    • Night Effect
    • Portfolio Strategies
    • Retirement Income
    • Richard Bernstein Advisors
    • Tax Efficient Income
    • Thematic Investing
    • Volatility Resource
  • Tools
    • ETF Screener
    • ETF Country Exposure Tool
    • ETF Sector Tracker Tool
    • ETF Database Categories
    • Head-To-Head ETF Comparison Tool
    • ETF Stock Exposure Tool
    • ETF Issuer Fund Flows
    • Indexes
    • Mutual Fund To ETF Converter
    • ETF Data for Journalists
    • ETF Nerds
  • Research
    • First Bitcoin ETF
    • ETF Education
    • Equity Investing
    • Dividend ETFs
    • Leveraged ETFs
    • Inverse ETFs
    • Index Education
    • Index Insights
    • Top ETF Sectors
    • Top ETF Issuers
    • Top ETF Industries
  • Webcasts
  • Themes
    • AI ETFs
    • Blockchain ETFs
    • See all Thematic Investing ETF themes
    • ESG Investing
    • Marijuana ETFs
  • Multimedia
    • ETF 360 Video Series
    • ETF Trends on Videos
    • ETF Trends on Podcasts
    • ETF Prime Podcast
  • Company
    • About Us
    • Swag Store
  • PRO
    • Pro Content
    • Pro Tools
    • Advanced
    • FAQ
    • Pricing
    • Free Sign Up
    • Login
  1. Leveraged & Inverse ETF Channel
  2. Will Growth Worries Hold Down Oil For Rest of 2019?
Leveraged & Inverse ETF Channel
Share

Will Growth Worries Hold Down Oil For Rest of 2019?

Ben HernandezMay 30, 2019
2019-05-30

Supply cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have pushed oil prices down, but downward forces from trade wars have also kept them in check. Will continued growth worries keep down the price of oil for the rest of 2019?

Oil prices rocketed higher last month following U.S. President Donald Trump ending waivers on companies wishing to purchase Iranian oil without facing stiff sanctions. The companies affected most by these waivers were China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey.

“The relative strength of the very short end of the curve likely reflects the market pricing in a known variable of lower supplies from OPEC+,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.

“Some signs of low confidence are creeping into positioning data,” Bell added. “The impact from a trade war is a more medium- to long-term issue and Dec. spreads weakened sharply over the last week.”

Oil, however, faces a number of possible headwinds, but thus far, it’s been ignoring these risks.

“Oil & Gas bears may point to concerns stemming from the potential for a global recession, as Europe grapples with a slowdown and continues to deal with the uncertainties of Brexit,” a Direxion post noted. “During the Global Financial Crisis, the oil demand fell of the table in a relatively short period. Don’t forget that trade negotiations between the US and China still loom. If discussions break down, oil demand could drop not just because of less physical trade, but also because of possible broader negative impact on the global economy. Also, because oil is priced in US dollars, if the greenback continues to rise, it could put negative pressure on prices.”

Furthermore, Global investment bank RBC Capital Markets is expecting more increases in oil prices, going as far as saying that crude could reach the $80 price level this summer. Overall, RBC Capital Markets is forecasting Brent crude prices to average $75 for 2019–up from a previous 2019 forecast of $69.50 per barrel.

Furthermore, their outlook for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose from $61.30 per barrel to $67 for 2019.

“We see price risk asymmetrically skewed to the upside spurred by geopolitically infused rallies that could shoot prices toward or even beyond our high-end, bull-case scenario and test the $80/bbl mark for intermittent periods this summer,” RBC strategists Michael Tran, Helima Croft and Christopher Louney said in a research note.

Fears of a global economic slowdown are also weighing on the minds of oil traders. After the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that “we’ve noted some developments at home and around the world that bear our close attention.”

That dovishness has translated into more cautious investors who are unwilling to dial up the risk with respect to capital allocation. A global economic slowdown could also keep oil prices in check with the prospect of weaker demand.

What ETFs can traders look at to take advantage of strength in oil? Bullish betters can consider the United States 3x Oil (USOU ), ProShares UltraPro 3x Crude Oil ETF (OILU ) and the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 3X Shares (GUSH B).

For more market trends, visit our Market Trends, visit ETFdb.com.


Content continues below advertisement

Loading Articles...
Help & Info
  • Contact Us
Tools
  • ETF Screener
  • ETF Analyzer
  • Mutual Fund to ETF Converter
  • Head-To-Head ETF Comparison
  • ETF Country Exposure Tool
  • ETF Stock Exposure Tool
  • ETF Performance Visualizer
  • ETF Database Model Portfolios
  • ETF Database Realtime Ratings
  • ETF Database Pro
More Tools
  • ETF Launch Center
  • Financial Advisor & RIA Center
  • ETF Database RSS Feed
Explore ETFs
  • ETF News
  • ETF Picks of the Month
  • ETF Category Reports
  • Premium Articles
  • Alphabetical Listing of ETFs
  • Best ETFs
  • Browse ETFs by ETF Database Category
  • Browse ETFs by Index
  • Browse ETFs by Issuer
  • Compare ETFs
Legal
  • Terms of Use and Privacy Policy
  • © 2023 VettaFi LLC. All rights reserved.
Follow ETF Database
Follow ETF Database

Advertisement

Is Your Portfolio Positioned With Enough Global Exposure?

ETF Education Channel

How to Allocate Commodities in Portfolios

Tom LydonApr 26, 2022
2022-04-26

A long-running debate in asset allocation circles is how much of a portfolio an investor should...

Core Strategies Channel

Why ETFs Experience Limit Up/Down Protections

Karrie GordonMay 13, 2022
2022-05-13

In a digital age where information moves in milliseconds and millions of participants can transact...

}
X