Gold is already soaring to start 2023, and while silver has some ground to make up, commodities market participants are bullish on the latter and reserved in their views of gold.
That’s the sentiment from a recent survey conducted by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The firm’s 2023 Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey also polled traders on their views regarding palladium and platinum.
Interestingly, while the iShares Silver Trust (SLV ) and other silver-backed exchange traded funds are slumping to start 2023, silver is the metal many of those polled by the LBMA are keeping an eye on when it comes to upside potential.
“The trading range for silver is forecast to be around $20.30, which is just 10 cents more than what they had forecast in last year’s survey ($20.20). The average forecast for this precious metal of $23.65 represents a 3.3% rise on the actual price average in 2022 ($21.73) – but is 0.9% less compared to the actual average price in the first half of January 2023 ($23.88),” according to the LBMA survey.
Another interesting point is that even though assets such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD ) are performing well to start 2023, market participants queried by the LBMA are tepid in their outlooks for bullion this year.
“Analysts are not expecting the gold price to move much this year compared to the actual average price in 2022 (+3.3%), as well as in relation to the actual average price in the first half of January 2023 (-1.1%),” added the research firm.
Forty-three percent of those surveyed believe the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will be the primary driver of the yellow metal’s prices this year, while a quarter say that either inflation or geopolitical events will chart gold’s course.
Platinum, accessible via the GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM ), among other exchange traded products, is the precious metal those polled by the LBMA are most constructive on for this year.
“Turning to platinum, analysts are predicting the average price to be $1,080.4 – a jump of 12.5% compared to the actual average price in 2022, and 0.6% up compared to the actual average price in the first half of January 2023. Prices are forecast to trade within a range of around $595,” according to the survey.
Broadly speaking, those polled are betting palladium prices will modestly treat this year.
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