Since late June, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have increased from less than $70 per barrel (bbl) to over $90/bbl. Much of that rally took place in July as the outlook for the economy started to improve (allaying demand concerns) and Saudi Arabia’s incremental 1 million barrel per day (MMBpd) cut took effect. Voluntary export reductions from Russia have also tightened the market. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced they would continue their 1 MMBpd and 0.3 MMBpd cuts, respectively, through year end. The news pushed WTI to over $90/bbl in mid-September. Meanwhile, demand has been strong with much of the growth attributed to China, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Importantly, the IEA forecasts that demand for 2H23 will be 1.5 MMBpd higher than in 1H23. Higher demand and less supply can quickly tighten market fundamentals and send prices higher.
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