On this week’s ETF Prime, Nate Geraci put his 2026 ETF predictions to the test with Cinthia Murphy, investment strategist at VettaFi, evaluating five major forecasts for the year ahead.
Geraci’s first prediction centers on industry consolidation following Goldman Sachs’ acquisition of Innovator ETFs. Murphy agreed the trend makes sense, noting the industry has over 400 unique ETF brands and 4,000 products.
“I’m actually surprised we haven’t seen more yet,” Murphy said, pointing to Raymond James’ recent acquisition of Clark Capital Management Group. The pair settled on expecting three to five meaningful deals this year.
On smart beta ETFs, Geraci forecasts inflows will double from $37 billion to $75 billion. Murphy backed this call, highlighting that the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP ) is already the fourth-largest fund by flows this year. The record for smart beta inflows stands at $103 billion, set in 2022.
Split On Crypto Indexes
Murphy showed skepticism on crypto index ETFs tripling assets from $1.7 billion to $5 billion. While year-to-date crypto flows hit $2 billion, Murphy noted these went almost entirely to bitcoin and ethereum funds rather than basket products. Geraci countered with a Bitwise/VettaFi survey showing 42% of advisors prefer crypto index ETFs over individual tokens.
Murphy endorsed predictions on international equity and fixed income ETFs breaking records. Bond ETFs have captured 32% of total flows so far this year, up from 29% last year, according to Murphy. She noted flows are shifting from short duration to the belly of the curve at roughly six years duration.
The episode also featured Matt Bartolini, global head of research strategist at State Street Investment Management, discussing three key themes: small-caps, active ETFs, and portfolio resilience. Bartolini highlighted that active ETFs saw record $580 billion inflows in 2025. Meanwhile, active mutual funds had $640 billion in outflows.
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