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Main Management: Preliminary reading for Q3 2023 Corporate Profits came in at +4.1% Q/Q, the...
Kim D. Arthur is a founding partner of Main Management, LLC. He currently serves as Mains CEO and Portfolio manager. In 2009 Kim was recognized by Institutional Investor Magazine as a “Rising Star” of Foundations and Endowments. Kim is a regular speaker at national conferences and was a featured speaker at the Inside ETFs conference in Boca Raton in January 2010. Kim has been profiled in articles by Index Universe and referenced in Barron’s, Wall Street Journal, Business Week and Fortune Magazine among others. Kim began his financial career in 1987 when he joined Montgomery Securities in their Institutional Sales division, marketing U.S. equities to Japanese institutions. He was promoted to managing director of institutional sales in 1997 during the period when Montgomery was purchased by Nations Bank. By 1999 he had advanced to the transitional head of International Sales for Banc of America Securities, following Bank of Americas takeover of Nations Bank. From 2000-2001 Kim was named the head of the Institutional Sales and Trading Department overseeing 60 sales traders in 6 cities. From January 2002 through August 2002 he was appointed the head of Equity Product Marketing. He served on the Investment Policy Committee and the Executive Management Committee at Bank of America Securities from 2000-2002.
James W. Concidine is a founding partner of Main Management, LLC. He currently serves as a Managing Director and is a member of the Investment Committee. Jim began his career in the financial services industry in 1970 as a stock broker for Dain Kalman Quail in Rochester and Minneapolis, Minnesota. He worked with retail clients from 1970-1978. When the CBOE opened in April 1973, Jim began to specialize in conservative covered call writing strategies. From 1978 to 1982, Mr. Concidine worked in the Institutional Sales group and was responsible for U.S. equity sales to institutional accounts in the UK. He joined Montgomery Securities in 1983 as Head of the International Institutional Sales Team. From 1983 to 1992 he expanded the department to a team of 10 brokers covering global accounts outside the US. He retired from Montgomery Securities in 1992. Since 1995, he has served as CIO for a sizable San Francisco family office where his duties include manager selection and asset allocation.
Ambassador J. Richard Fredericks is a founding partner of Main Management, LLC. He currently serves as a Managing Director and is a member of the Investment Committee. He began his career with Dean Witter in 1970 as a securities analyst. In 1977, he joined Montgomery Securities (now Banc of America Securities) as a partner and later Senior Managing Director in Investment Research, covering the banking and financial service area. For 17 consecutive years, Mr. Fredericks was chosen by Institutional Investor Magazine as an “All-American” Research Analyst, covering the commercial banking industry. In 1995, Mr. Fredericks formally changed roles to oversee the firm’s investment banking effort for the financial industry. Mr. Fredericks served as United States Ambassador to both Switzerland and Liechtenstein from 1999 to 2001. Mr. Fredericks currently is on The Library of Congress Trust Fund Board; the Board of Directors of Cadence Bancorp LLC; the Advisory Board of Financial Technology Ventures; the Board of Chambers & Chambers Wine Merchants; and as a grower and Board Member for Turley Wine Cellars. He has previously served on the board of Janus Corporation; the Board of Trustees at Loyola University of Maryland; Bancorp Hawaii and its main subsidiary, Bank of Hawaii; the Board of Directors of the Chiron Corporation; the International Advisory Board of Komatsu; the Board of Regents of Georgetown University and Georgetown’s Robert Emmet McDonough School of Business; as a Board Member of the Swiss/American Chamber in Switzerland; as on Entrepreneur in Residence at Weston Presidio; as a Regent of St. Ignatius College Preparatory School; and as a Trustee for The Town School for Boys.
Alex Varner joined Main Management full-time in July of 2012. He serves as Director of Research where his focus includes generating a variety of analytical reports for the firm’s Investment Committee. He interned with Main during the summer of 2011 while working towards his MBA from UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School, with a concentration in Investment Management, which was attained in May 2012. He grew up in San Rafael, California and received a Bachelor of Arts degree from Davidson College. Prior to business school Alex worked as a paralegal for the global capital markets, M&A team at the law firm of Hunton & Williams LLP and as part of the operations team at Lateef Investment Management.
October Manufacturing PMIs continued lower for the most part. However, the U.S. bucked the trend...
From Main Management: New Home Sales beat expectations in September, jumping +12.3% M/M to a...
According to Main Management – Mortgage rates have topped 8% for the first time since 2000...
The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 63.0,...
Main Management – The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $58.3bil as Imports ticked down while...
New Home Sales dropped -8.7% M/M in August, well below forecasts and the biggest decline in 11...
The FOMC held the Fed Funds Rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range at this week’s meeting but...
Main Management: Vehicle Sales ticked higher to 15.74 million units in July as both car and light...
July’s JOLTS report could be seen as encouraging news as vacancies fell to 8.8 million,...
Main Management: The final August reading for UMich Consumer Sentiment came in at 69.5, a...
Gas prices rose for the 6th straight week, climbing to $3.85/gal. That’s the longest streak of...
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index’s uptick to 91.9 in July may suggest that small...
Main Management: July Manufacturing PMIs continued lower for the most part. However, the U.S....
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey saw the Bulls surge to 51.4% this week, the highest bullish...
The preliminary July reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey jumped 8.2...
The client wants to invest $120,000 but is unsure about their entry point. You recommend Value...
According to Main Management, May job openings declined to 9.824 million, trending lower but...
The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 64.4...
Main Management reports: fFr the manufacturing sector, all 6 of the countries that report flash...
Main Management reports: the preliminary June reading for the University of Michigan Consumer...
This week, the S&P 500 closed up 20% from its October 2022 closing low, signaling the start...
Main Management: The May reading for the Chicago Manufacturing PMI fell to 40.4, well below...
Main Management reports they got the flash PMI readings for the U.S. this week. Manufacturing...
Main Management reports the quarter-over-quarter increase of $148 billion was the smallest growth...
As Main Management notes, the Fed’s SLOOS for Q2 2023 has been released, and the focus is...
This week, the FOMC increased the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a target range of 5.00 —...
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined in April to 101.3 from 104.0 in March,...
In March, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index suffered a setback, dropping by 0.8 points.
Main Management reports Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cut Announcements rose to 89,703 in...
The final reading for the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down...
In new Main Management report, the FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points this week, bringing the...
Main Management’s readings are another sign that inflation is slowing for producers, which...
The yield curve inversion continues to steepen. The spread between the 10-year & 2-year...
The February reading for the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index moved lower to 102.9,...
Total Housing Starts slowed to a 1.31 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, below...
Evan Harp sat down with Main Management’s founding partner Kim Arthur at Exchange for a...
Initial unemployment claims rose to 196,000 for the week ended Feb 4, above market expectations...
Layoff announcements surged to 102,943 in January, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas....
Main Management update: The final January reading for the University of Michigan Consumer...
Industrial Production missed expectations and fell by -0.7% M/M in December, marking the 3rd...
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for January improved across the...
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey posted its most bearish year on record in 2022.
Main Management’s inflation take regarding expecations based out of the University of...
According to Main Management, the FOMC raised rates by 50 basis points this week to a target rate...
Continuing Unemployment Claims rose by 62,000 to 1.671 million for the week of November 26, ahead...
Below is a chart showing the current, median, and high/low values for the Price-to-Earnings value...
Main Management got the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for October this week, and this...
Main Management delivers their market note for the week of November 11, 2022, which digs into...
Main Management market note: The FOMC raised interest rates by another 75 basis points this week,...
Main Management notes: The Q3 Employment Cost Index decelerated for the 2nd consecutive quarter...
The Social Security Administration recently announced that the Cost-of-Living Adjustment for 2022...
The preliminary October reading for UMichigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 59.8, the best reading...
2022 has seen wealth destruction on an incredible scale.
Think inflation is bad here in the U.S.? At least we appear to have seen a top in our Headline...
The Strategy Petroleum Reserve drew down -8.4 million barrels for the week of September 9, 2022.
TSA Traveler Throughput for 2022 surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic over...
The National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index fell to 98.5, the lowest reading...
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised higher in the final August...
The preliminary August readings for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index were...
Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims rose by +6,000 to 260,000 for the week ended July 30, 2022.
New Home Sales fell -8.1% M/M in June, the 3rd straight monthly decline.
The three worst first halves of the year for the S&P 500 since 1948 were 1962, 1970, and...
Executive Summary
The U.S. trade deficit inched down to -$85.5 billion in May, the smallest deficit in 5 months.
We cover the final Q1 2022 U.S. GDP release in greater detail later in the note, but we wanted to...
New Home Sales rebounded unexpectedly in June, rising +10.7% M/M to a seasonally adjusted annual...
The FOMC raised rates by 0.75% this week, bringing the target range to 1.50% – 1.75%. That’s the...
The June preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to...
The 2nd estimate for Q1 2022 Productivity was revised slightly higher to -7.35% Q/Q annualized...
The final reading for the May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower...
According to the Pew Research Center, inflation is a top concern in the U.S. right now, and for...
The Fed raised rates by 50 basis points this week, marking the biggest increase since 2000.
Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims remain in a solid downtrend. They dropped to 1.417 million...
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey saw the Bulls sink to 15.8%, the lowest level since September...
Gas prices have declined for 3 weeks in a row since peaking at $4.32\/gallon on March 14.
The March Jobs Cuts Report shows that firms announced 21,387 job cuts, up +40% M\/M but down -30%...
The final March reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower...
Existing Home Sales fell -7.2% M\/M in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02...
Some interesting data on the VIX paraphrased from DataTrek: The CBOE VIX Index closed at 36.5 on...
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ruble has been decimated. Entering 2021,...
The final February reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 62.8,...
On a Y\/Y basis, Broad Retail Sales slowed to +13.0% Y\/Y but hit a new all-time high on an...
The preliminary February reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to...
Manufacturing PMIs for January weakened on the whole. The U.S. dropped to 55.5 from 57.7, a...
The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower from...
The University of Michigan Preliminary January readings declined across the board. The Headline...
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Layoff Announcements came in at 19,052 in December, bringing the...
Flash PMIs for December came out this week. Below we show the composite indices which were...
The preliminary December reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey saw...
The Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cut Announcement Report showed that firms announced...
Alibaba’s Singles’ Day saw revenues of 540.3 billion in 2021, an +8.5% increase from 2020’s...
Preliminary November results for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey are out.
The U.S. Trade Deficit dropped to -$80.9 billion in September, the biggest ever by quite a...
The Atlanta Fed Survey of Business Uncertainty for October was released this week.
October Flash PMIs were released this week. The manufacturing sector was largely weaker, although...
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 1 point in September to 99.1. It’s now down...
Below we show the number of people who have been unemployed for more than 6 months (blue) versus...
The FOMC meeting minutes were released this week. The new Dot Plot is shown below and the median...
It looks like the COVID-19 test and death curves are starting to roll over.
Q2 2021 Corporate Profits rose to an all-time high of $2.8 trillion. They are now 10.7% of...
July Housing Starts declined -7.0% M\/M, below expectations of a -3.2% drop. Supply constraints...
While the June and July inflation numbers are running hot, there are a few categories that are...
While the headline Q2 2021 U.S. GDP figure may have been below estimates, GDP per Capita jumped...
In what could be considered a very delayed decision, the National Bureau of Economic Research...
BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy was recently released and one of the highlights was the...
The summer travel season is well underway and, combined with the economic re-opening, we have...
The final reading for Q1 2021 U.S. GDP came in at 6.36% real, annualized.
Q1 2021 Service sector revenues were recently released. The only sector that saw a decline in...
The Broad and Core Producer Price Indices surged in May, with Broad PPI jumping +6.48% and Core...
The preliminary June reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was...
The firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas keeps tabs on monthly layoff announcements.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 82.9 in May, down from 88.3 in April....
The NY Fed recently released it’s Q1 2021 report on consumer debt. Below is the breakdown per...
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in April, up +9.8% Y\/Y. Overall, the picture...
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To learn more about Main Management and how some of our strategies could help...
We got the University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment readings today. All 3 indices...
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index jumped to +1.71 in March, the strongest reading since...
NFIB Small Business Optimism ticked higher to 98.2 in March, up from 95.8 in February.
AAII investor sentiment survey turned markedly more bullish this week, with the Bulls surging to...
The Conference Boards’ Consumer Confidence Index surged to 109.7 in March, the highest reading...
March Flash Manufacturing PMI numbers are out and they were very strong, for Europe in...
Inflation remained moderate in January, as Headline CPI edged higher and Core CPI moved lower....
The firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks monthly layoff announcements.
Here’s a look at vaccine innovation since 1880. As you can see, prior to the COVID-19 vaccine(s),...
The Christmas Holiday shopping season kicked off last week starting with Black Friday (November...
For 33 years, the American Farm Bureau has released an annual survey of the total cost of the...
The mid-term elections happen this week. Pundits are in general agreement that the Democrats will...
October brings with it the beauty of fall to most of America. It may also be the best time of...
There is little doubt that the liberalization of the global economy and lower tariff levels has...
The Heritage Foundation, in their report titled “The Benefits of Free Trade: A Guide for...
Midterm elections are now less than five months away. Typically, economic issues have ranked as...
The CESifo World Economic Climate survey was recently released for the second quarter 2018.
How is it That Unelected Politicians are Crafting the Laws of Our Nation?
Among asset management teams there is a common belief that it’s better to own the worst stock in...
The economy bottomed in early 2009 and has slowly and steadily regained its momentum since aided...
A poll was taken by Reason-Rupe 2013 which asked folks \“what percent profit on each dollar...
European nations appear concerned about the competitive advantage America may regain
Although there will undoubtedly be modifications to the GOP tax proposal, we feel there is a high...
Through the end of the third quarter, the Emerging Market category was the best equity class in...
According to the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the economy ‘shed’ 33,000...
As Congress comes back from their recess, they will have a lot they want to accomplish, but they...
Americans love their automobiles. As a large capital expenditure, it is an important economic...
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released a report in May that showed that the...
The 2016 election was among the more contentious political contests in recent memory. A key...
The stock market is up after Trump’s election as \“animal spirits\” were...
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate (Fed Funds) a quarter...
Positive sentiment, in addition to JOLTS data, buoying the equity markets.
Political spin has long been a hallmark of presidential campaigns. Historically, both parties...
While sovereign bond yields appear to be edging higher around the world, thus far the Fed seems...
What the JOLTS and other related data may indicate about the direction of the economy.
As investors reflect on 2016 to date it may be best described as one lacking consensus on the...
Contrary to the expectations of some of the world’s most respected bond managers, bond prices...
The BLS jobs reports from the first quarter of 2016 were generally robust and ahead of consensus...
The “Household Employment” figure moved up 530,000 after a jump of 615,000 the prior month before...
Underlying economic fundamentals are at odds with the press and equity market volatility.
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A long-running debate in asset allocation circles is how much of a portfolio an investor should...
In a digital age where information moves in milliseconds and millions of participants can transact...
