History suggests that technology stocks may not be done delivering gains
Tech stocks have once again been on a roll lately. The Nasdaq-100 Index is up 25% so far this quarter¹, boosted by "SpaceX’s historic IPO,":https://www.horizoninvestments.com/spacexs-upcoming-ipo-a-reality-check-for-investors/ continued robust earnings growth, and a seemingly insatiable demand for AI infrastructure.
How much further could tech stocks go from here? A look back at history suggests that rallies can continue much longer than people may think—and that the tech sector could have plenty of room to run.
Consider the last period of massive tech-fueled transformation. The late-1990s Internet boom saw the Nasdaq-100 soar more than 1,000% from 1995 into early 2000 (see the chart). Even after that bubble burst, the index still boasted a 290% gain over the seven years through 2001, for a roughly 21% compound annualized return.
Today, as seen in the chart, the Nasdaq 100’s performance trend largely echoes that of the early Internet years. The index’s 173% return over the past 864 trading days is very similar to its 192% return over the same period in the mid-90s.
Does that mean history is set to repeat, this time with AI in the driver’s seat? There’s no way to know with certainty, of course. But much like the Internet in 1995, AI’s development today appears to be in its early stages, with likely much more potential to unlock in the coming years.
Add in the many big-picture positives (such as the "robust job market":https://www.horizoninvestments.com/spacexs-upcoming-ipo-a-reality-check-for-investors/ and corporate earnings growth, strong "seasonal trends,":https://www.horizoninvestments.com/a-summer-stock-melt-up/ and a likely end to the Iran War), and it’s easy to make a case that the Nasdaq 100’s current bull run has legs that could carry it much further than investors may expect.
Authored by Mike Dickson
¹ Through June 12, 2026
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