Who Charted? Ep. 68

There is no other way to describe the past three weeks of trading as anything other than very impressive. The generals moved back to the front of the pack, leading a bullish charge, and the soldiers followed into battle. It’s exactly what we’ve been saying the bulls needed to see.

That said, markets have a short memory. You’re only as good as your last trade. So the question becomes, now what?

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 closed last week at record levels. Each did so by opening near the low of the week and closing near the high, while posting a fairly wide trading range.

Both indices are now firmly above their rising 60‑week moving averages.

It wasn’t just the headline indices making new highs. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line also closed at record levels. This confirms that recent strength is not simply the result of a snap‑back rally in large‑cap leaders, but rather a broad‑based move higher across equities.

Notably, the 43‑week moving average has also turned higher.

There isn’t much to say about this chart other than “wow.” The trend has not only remained intact, it has accelerated to the upside. Price is well above the steadily rising 27‑week moving average.

While participation is strong and intermarket signals like Transports are confirming, it’s important to note where leadership is no longer coming from. Consumer Staples were higher last week, but they are no longer leading.

Sustained leadership from Staples is generally not a characteristic of strong bull markets.

The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity‑Indexed Trust has been moving lower since peaking on April 6. Even with the pullback over the past two weeks, the group remains nearly two standard deviations above its rising 200‑day moving average.

Given geopolitical tensions, commodities and equities have been moving inversely. To the extent commodity prices continue to fall, that should act as a tailwind for equity bulls.

The bulls are back in control, capitalizing on the oversold conditions that we highlighted in this note three weeks ago. The question is, now what? Odds favor continued strength in the intermediate-to-longer time frames.

Authored by Dan Russo.

Originally posted on Potomac.

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