Today is Veterans Day. My father served in the army during the Vietnam War. He lives in Long Island, New York, and I am proud of his service. Today is also a holiday for many. The bond market is closed, yet the stock market is open.
Why am I writing this on a website with the word ETF in the name? A record $260 billion of money has flowed into bond ETFs as of Nov. 7. Advisors and investors are increasingly turning to these securities for income, to serve as a ballast in a stock-heavy portfolio, and for other reasons. Now that the election results are largely known and the Fed has again cut interest rates, we expect demand for bond ETFs to remain high.
Bond ETFs Are Trading on Veterans Day
For those of you planning to buy or sell a bond ETF today, I want to repeat myself: The bond market is closed, yet the stock market is open. Bond ETFs are traded throughout the day on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, or the Cboe the same way that Apple or the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY ) is.
When the bond market is open, this works extremely smoothly. The value of the bonds inside the ETF are used to determine the price at which someone wants to sell or buy the bond ETF to you. However, when the bond market is closed, like it is today, there is incomplete information. We caution you to be mindful that today could be a different trading experience.
ETFs Can Trade at Discounts or Premiums to NAV
Many of you may know this but it is still worth a refresher. A mutual fund is bought and sold at its net asset value (NAV). However, an ETF is bought and sold at a market price, which can be different from the NAV. When the ETF trades above its NAV, this is known as a premium. When it trades below its NAV, it is known as a discount.
A modest premium or a discount can regularly occur. But a large disparity can be cause for hesitation. Let’s review a few examples from iShares, which provides some great information on their website.
The iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG ) is one of the largest, oldest, and most frequently traded bond ETFs. The $118 billion ETF traded 8 million shares on average in the past month. In the first three quarters, AGG’s closing price matched its NAV on 19 days. The majority of the time AGG closed at a premium but slight discounts did occur. The highest premium was on Jan. 11, when the price was 0.12% higher than the NAV. The highest discount occurred twice in June and August. It was a modest 0.04%.
Active ETFs Can Trade Differently
Meanwhile, the iShares Flexible Income Active ETF (BINC ) is a newer ETF. It launched 18 months ago, but still serves as a good example. The ETF has $6 billion in assets and trades more than 700,000 shares daily on average. Every day in the first nine months of 2024, BINC traded at a premium to NAV. The highest premium was 0.81% on Jan. 18, but most days it was between 0.20% and 0.40%.
BINC is different from AGG in a few ways that we think contributes to its price differential. BINC has a mixture of investment- and speculative-grade bonds and is actively managed. In contrast, AGG tracks an index of investment-grade, more liquid securities.
As these examples show, whether the bond market is open or closed, prices often slightly deviate from a bond ETF’s NAV. However, there are a few good rules of ETF trading I have.
One of them is: If you do not HAVE to trade a bond ETF, do not do it when the bond market is closed. Tuesday will be a more normal experience.
For more news, information, and analysis, visit VettaFi | ETFDB.
