The S&P 500 fell for 4 straight days to end the week, wiping out all prior gains made this month. The index is currently up 10.46% year to date and is 11.93% below its record close from January 3, 2022.
Here is a snapshot of the index over the past 5 days:
Here is a snapshot of the index from the past six months:
The U.S. Treasury put the closing yield on the 10-year note, as of October 20th, at 4.93% which is above its record low (0.52% on 8/4/2020). The 2-year note is at 5.07%. See our latest Treasury Snapshot here.
S&P 500: A Perspective on Drawdowns
On October 9, 2007 the S&P 500 reached a then all-time high, closing the day at 1565.15. Then on March 9, 2009, the index dropped ~57% off of its high from exactly 17 months before, closing the day at 676.53. This time period became known as the Global Financial Crisis. It took over 5 years before the index reached a new then all-time high on March 28, 2013, where it closed out at 1569.19. The chart below is a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2007 peak reached on October 9, 2007.
What happens if we take out the Global Financial Crisis? Here’s a snapshot the same chart above where the start date has been changed to the trough reached on March 9, 2009. Note the recent selloffs in 2022.
Here’s a table with the number of days of a 1% or greater change in either direction and the number of days of corrections (down 10% or more from the record high) going back to 2013.
Here is a linear chart of the index since October 9, 2007:
Here is a linearly scaled version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Starting on August 16th, the index dropped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since the end of March.
S&P 500: A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. I’ve also included a 20-day moving average to identify trends in volatility.
S&P 500 versus S&P Equal Weight
How does the S&P 500 match up against the S&P Equal Weight Index this year? The S&P 500 is currently up10.46% while the S&P Equal Weight is down 2.91%.
