In broad terms, developing world stocks are delivering the goods for investors this year, with the widely followed MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 26%. Count India stocks among the emerging markets laggards, because the MSCI India Index is off 8.52%.
To be sure, that’s a discouraging showing by stocks in one of Asia’s largest economies, but the slump may also be a harbinger of opportunity with ETFs such as the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI ) and the WisdomTree India Hedged Equity Fund (INDH ). To their credit, EPI and INDH are outperforming the MSCI India Index year-to-date.
Tactical investors may want to evaluate the WisdomTree ETFs over the near-term. Despite the struggles of India stocks this year, experts view the country’s macroeconomic data as largely encouraging, signaling a growth trajectory that could support upside for risk assets in the country.
EPI, INDH Can Rebound
Catalysts that could facilitate rebounds by EPI and INDH include strength in India’s banking system. Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist, recently mentioned solid credit growth in the banking system there.
“One is the banking system credit growth, and number two is the auto sales, particularly the passenger vehicle sales. So bank credit growth is growing as of the last biweekly data point that we got,” Ahya noted on a Morgan Stanley podcast. “It’s growing at 17.7% year-on-year, and car sales are growing at 27% in the month of May.”
The strength of India’s banking and credit systems is pertinent to the WisdomTree ETFs. Indeed, INDH allocates 24% of its roster to financial services stocks. EPI, one of the oldest and largest ETFs in the category, has the same weight to that sector.
As Ahya pointed out, earnings growth is solid in India. However, it’s lagging the levels seen in some tech-heavy emerging markets, such as South Korea and Taiwan. Thus, investors are focusing more on those markets over India. Still, India offers attractive long-term opportunity, indicating that EPI and INDH may be worth examining by patient investors.
“[Equities] is a quintessential long-duration asset class. In the long run, what matters is terminal growth,” observed Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley’s head of India research and chief India equity strategist. “I don’t really think India’s terminal growth has moved much. It remains far superior to a lot of other countries around the world. And therefore, I think this does present itself as a great opportunity for a long-term investor while the markets are digesting this relative growth disadvantage that India seems to have over the next, say, three or four quarters.”
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