For years, governments and industry have discussed the energy trilemma, which is the need for secure, affordable, and low-carbon energy. Following the Paris Climate Accord in 2015, significant emphasis was placed on the low-carbon component as countries and corporations set net-zero emission targets.
In this decade, emission concerns have somewhat faded in favor of reliability and affordability amid global energy price spikes in 2022 and 2026. While the current crisis reinforces the importance of a diversified energy mix, it also shines a greater light on the benefits of nuclear power, especially in achieving decarbonization goals.
Key Takeaways:
- In an energy crisis, emissions goals can easily be set aside as countries focus on energy security, reliability, and affordability.
- Nuclear is uniquely able to provide secure, reliable energy without the need to compromise emission goals.
- In Europe, a shift away from nuclear power has left the region less energy secure, with France the notable exception.
In an energy crisis, keeping the lights on becomes primary.
The world is currently in the midst of its second energy crisis this decade. The first resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which hit Europe especially hard but had global implications as oil and gas prices broadly rose. The war in Iran and disruption to energy flows from the Middle East has similarly carried broad consequences as global oil and natural gas benchmarks have spiked.
The events of 2022 and this year tend to drive a renewed focus on energy security, reliability, and affordability. In the middle of the crisis, emissions tend to take a back seat. As one example, Germany restarted coal plants in 2022 to help ensure adequate power supplies. Similarly, while not particularly sensitive to emissions, price-conscious Asian buyers have turned increasingly to coal during the current price spike in liquefied natural gas.
When energy becomes more scarce, the primary focus tends to be ensuring countries have the power and energy needed to meet people’s needs (staying warm in the winter or cool in the summer) and support their economies. Emissions goals can easily be compromised or set aside in these situations.
Nuclear checks the boxes for energy security and decarbonization.
The current energy crisis reinforces the importance of nuclear power, especially for countries with more ambitious climate goals. For countries without nuclear power in their energy mix or limited nuclear capacity, price spikes for liquefied natural gas tend to be particularly painful. Policy decisions from past decades are ultimately what is shaping how countries experience the current crisis, with Europe providing a prime example.
In 1990, nuclear provided a third of Europe’s electricity, and today it is only 15% of the mix. In March, following the start of the war with Iran, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the shift away from nuclear as a strategic mistake. She announced a €200 million guarantee to incentivize private investment in nuclear technology.
While nuclear is extremely reliable and provides emission-free power generation, it also stands out for being more secure. Nuclear power has long refuel cycles (18-24 months) and benefits from more stability in uranium supplies (read more). Additionally, years of fuel can be stored onsite at reactors.
France is in a better position than many of its European neighbors because of its extensive nuclear fleet, with nuclear energy accounting for 68% of its electricity mix in 2024. Earlier this year, before the war with Iran, France announced its own policy shift to extend reactor lives and build new reactors (read more). It bears mentioning that several European countries have signed the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050 and are pursuing more nuclear capacity. This does not include Germany, which shuttered its nuclear plants, or Austria.
Bottom line
The energy crises in this decade may provide further policy momentum for nuclear in the years ahead. Nuclear is uniquely able to provide secure, reliable energy without the need to compromise emission goals.
Related research:
Iran Conflict Reinforces Nuclear Energy’s Stability
France’s Nuclear Pivot Serves as Catalyst for NUKZ
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