Retail Sales: Consumer Spending Rises for Third Straight Month

Here is the introduction from today’s report:

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $757.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from April 2025. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2026 to March 2026 percent change was revised from up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from March 2026, and up 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.1 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 2.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from April 2025.

The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The three exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.

1. The light purple line is a linear regression through the complete data series.
2. The green line is a regression from the start of the series through the end of 2007 and then extrapolated to the present – thus excluding the Financial Crisis.
3. The blue line is a regression from the start of the series through the end of 2019 and then extrapolated to the present – thus excluding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Monthly retail sales have been above the light purple and blue line since March 2021, signaling increased consumer spending that was most likely pent up as a result of the pandemic.

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Current retail sales are up 4.9% compared to one year ago. Here is the headline series with a callout to the most recent 12 months.

Core sales were up for an eleventh straight month in April, rising 0.7%. This was down from the 1.9% spike in March and was consistent with the forecast.

Core sales are up 6.3% year-over-year, the largest annual increase since early 2023.

To find the true signal through the noise of the energy crisis, we look at “Control” purchases, which is an even more “core” view of retail sales. This series is the most reliable reading of the economy as it excludes: motor vehicles & parts, gasoline stations, building materials, food services & drinking places. Retail sales control purchases rose 0.5% in April, the fourth consecutive increase. This beat expectations of 0.4% growth but was down from 0.8% in March.

Similar to the retail sales snapshot chart earlier, the chart below is a log-scale snapshot of control purchases since the early 1990s and includes two of the exponential regressions previously mentioned.

Current control purchases are up 5.8% compared to one year ago.

As shown in the chart below, the “control” series offers a much smoother, less volatile view of consumer health compared to the headline data, which is currently being whipped around by geopolitical instability and energy markets. Note that the two series follow each other closely, but headline sales have more extreme highs and lows than the control series.

Retail sales will impact interest in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT B+), VanEck Retail ETF (RTH A-), Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY C+), and ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN B).

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Originally published on Advisor Perspectives.

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