Roundhill Financial, GraniteShares, and Bitwise have filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for prediction market ETFs. These funds would let investors bet directly on election outcomes. That would be a departure from traditional political theme funds that hold baskets of stocks expected to benefit from certain party victories.
The filings represent the first attempt to package Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated event contracts into ETFs, according to the prospectuses. These contracts settle at $1.00 if a specified party wins an election and $0.00 if they lose. This creates an all-or-nothing investment structure that could result in near-total losses if investors pick the wrong outcome.
Each firm filed for six funds covering the 2028 presidential race and the 2026 House and Senate elections. Roundhill’s offerings include the Democratic President ETF (BLUP) and Republican President ETF (REDP). There are also four congressional variants covering the House and Senate races. GraniteShares and Bitwise, operating under the PredictionShares brand, filed for identical structures targeting the same races.
The funds would gain exposure through swap agreements that reference event contracts traded on designated contract markets, according to the filings. Unlike traditional ETFs that hold portfolios of securities, these funds derive substantially all of their economic exposure from derivative instruments tied to a single binary outcome.
Each prospectus included an identical warning that investors will “lose substantially all” of their value if the targeted party doesn’t win. The funds are designed for investors who understand binary prediction markets, not traditional equity portfolios, according to the filings.
Inside the Win-or-Lose Structure
The daily trading price of event contracts reflects the market’s implied probability of each outcome. A contract trading at $0.45 implies a 45% chance of the party winning. As polling data, news developments, and market sentiment shift, the fund’s net asset value will fluctuate between $0.00 and $1.00.
The mechanics include an early determination feature that could exit positions before official election certification. If the market implies a greater than 99.5% certainty for five consecutive trading days, the funds would liquidate and roll proceeds into contracts for the next election cycle, according to the filings.
This early determination mechanism creates timing risks, according to the prospectuses. If the market incorrectly assumes an outcome with 99.5% certainty for 5 days, the fund would exit its positions in error. A subsequent legal battle or recount that changes the winner would leave shareholders locked out of the reversed payout.
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