20 Allen Avenue
Suite 300
Saint Louis, MO 63119
Confluence Investment Management
- Phone: (314) 743-5090
- Fax: (314) 743-5205
20 Allen Avenue
Suite 300
Saint Louis, MO 63119
On May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) formally exited both the Organization of the Petroleum...
As Chief Investment Officer, Mark Keller provides overall leadership and oversees all of Confluence’s investment strategies and investment operations, including equity strategies (value and international), asset allocation and alternative investments. In addition to his active involvement in the investment decisions of the firm, Mark has been instrumental in product development. Mark has over 40 years of investment experience, with a focus on value-oriented equity analysis and management.
Prior to joining Confluence, Mark was a senior vice president of A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc. and of Gallatin Asset Management, Inc., and was a member of the Board of Directors of both companies. From 1994 to May 2008, he was Chief Investment Officer of Gallatin Asset Management, Inc., and its predecessor organization, A.G. Edwards Asset Management, the investment management arm of A.G. Edwards, Inc. Mark and his team were responsible for the management of over $10 billion of assets across various equity, asset allocation and fixed income strategies.
From 1999 to 2008, Mark was Chairman of the A.G. Edwards Investment Strategy Committee, which set investment policy and established asset allocation models for the entire organization. He was a founding member of this body and served on it for over 20 years. Mark began his career with A.G. Edwards in 1978, serving as an equity analyst for the firm’s Securities Research Department from 1979 to 1994. During his last five years in Securities Research, Mark was equity strategist and manager of the firm’s Focus List.
Mark earned his Bachelor of Arts from Wheaton College (Illinois) and is a CFA charter holder.
Brian Hansen is responsible for the day-to-day operations at Confluence and is a member of Confluence’s Board of Directors, which sets the strategic direction of the firm.
Prior to founding Confluence, Brian served as a managing director in the Financial Institutions & Real Estate investment banking practice at A.G. Edwards & Sons. While at A.G. Edwards, he provided financial advisory and capital markets services to companies operating in the asset management sector, commercial real estate companies including real estate investment trusts, and other real estate-oriented asset managers. Additionally, he assisted numerous asset managers with the development of innovative investment fund products in the real estate, energy and specialty finance sectors. Before joining A.G. Edwards, Brian served as a manager in Arthur Andersen LLP’s Audit & Business Advisory practice.
Brian currently serves on the Board of Directors of Franklin Street Properties Corp. (NYSE MKT: FSP), a Boston-based Real Estate Investment Trust, and the Investment Committee of the Archdiocese of St. Louis.
Brian earned his Master of Business Administration from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, and graduated magna cum laude from DePaul University with a Bachelor of Science in commerce. Brian is a Certified Public Accountant.
As Chief Market Strategist, Bill O’Grady performs market, economic and geopolitical research for the firm, and is a member of the investment committees for the Asset Allocation strategies and International Equity strategies. Bill also co-manages Confluence’s Global Hard Assets portfolio, which focuses on tangible commodities investments. These strategies all rely on his top-down evaluations of the geopolitical environment, fundamental macroeconomic trends and technical patterns in the target markets. Additionally, Bill writes numerous reports for the firm, which can be found under Research & News, in which he provides insights on various economic and geopolitical topics and discusses market effects.
Prior to joining Confluence, Bill served as Vice President and Chief Investment Strategist for Wachovia Securities. As Chief Investment Strategist, he provided short-term asset allocation advice for Wachovia’s Advisory Services Group. Prior to this, Bill served in a variety of positions in his 19-year tenure at A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc., including Chief Global Investment Strategist, Assistant Director of Market Analysis and Manager of Futures Research, and was also a member of the A.G. Edwards Investment Strategy Committee.
In all, Bill has more than 30 years of experience following the energy, foreign exchange and futures markets and is frequently quoted by such national media outlets as The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News. Bill earned a master’s degree in economics from St. Louis University and has undergraduate degrees in history and public administration from Avila College.
As Chief Investment Officer-Asset Allocation, Greg Ellston leads the Asset Allocation Investment Committee, which is responsible for setting and implementing policy for the firm’s cyclical ETF strategies.
Prior to joining Confluence, Greg was Managing Director of Asset Allocation and Portfolio Construction for the Investment Management Group at TIAA-CREF for nine years. In this role, he initiated and constructed a discretionary management platform that grew to over $21 billion during his tenure. His group also provided oversight for another $20 billion in assets for a number of affiliates.
Before TIAA-CREF, Greg worked at A.G. Edwards as a vice president within the Gallatin Asset Management division, where he directed Manager Analysis and served as co-manager on the Cyclical Asset Allocation Portfolios. Prior to A.G. Edwards, Greg held roles at Rauscher Pierce Refsnes, Inc. and Stifel, Nicolaus & Company. Over the course of his 30 years of experience, Greg has been involved in building five fee-based platforms at three different firms, including separate accounts, open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. He was involved in the first closed-end fund research effort and the first research group incorporating dedicated investment manager analysts.
Greg has served on the Securities Industry Association’s Investment Company Committee and has been a member of Morningstar’s Institutional Advisory Council. Greg earned his BBA from the University of Mississippi and his MBA from the A.B. Freeman School of Business at Tulane University.
Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed based...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed based...
The surge of gold past the $4,000-per-ounce level in October marks a definitive pivot in market...
AI is arguably the most exciting investment story of our time, with discussions swirling around...
The federal government’s economic reports are a valuable resource — timely, comprehensive, and...
There are many ways to describe the strong performance in large cap US stock prices this year....
Mounting national debt and tightening financing conditions are pushing the US Treasury to rethink...
Tucked within the (ironically named) One Big, Beautiful Bill Act lies a provision that could...
The old Wall Street quip about economists having “predicted nine of the last five recessions” has...
-Our three-year forecast includes an economic slowdown in the near term and potential recovery...
Six months into his presidency, Reagan backed restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation....
A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be...
While investors broadly understood that the new Trump administration would impose import tariffs...
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
- Our three-year forecast includes balanced economic growth, albeit at a slower pace than recent...
As the November elections approach, there has been significant debate over which presidential...
Although the financial press has failed to discuss it at length, the United States bond market...
The Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are independent government agencies with the shared...
While there has been some speculation that the US economy may be headed for a recession, one...
July 15, 2024
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are...
Early 2023 served as a stark reminder that correlations can break down when least expected. Last...
Money has three characteristics: medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. When...
April 29, 2024
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently castigated the European...
Throughout history, immigration has been a politically charged issue, creating a rift between...
In our Asset Allocation Bi-Weeklyreport from March 4, 2024, we began to explain more fully our...
While the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate focuses on achieving maximum employment and stable...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Fourth Quarter 2023 Asset Allocation Outlook
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products, which are managed...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
By the Confluence Asset Allocation Committee, from November 14, 2022
Confluence Investment...
Confluence Investment Management’s Fourth Quarter 2022 Asset Allocation Outlook
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products, which are managed...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
By the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF
U.S. policymakers used deregulation and globalization to...
Meet a Strategist is a weekly feature where Evan Harp talks to different strategists about how...
In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Politics is the art of the possible…
—Otto Von Bismarck
Although there have been attempts...
As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
Crude oil prices have been mostly holding steady this week.
The Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence and the University of Michigan Survey of...
The U.S. economy and government economic policies have many moving parts, but investors often...
When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political...
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using...
We don’t expect a recession in 2022. Real GDP growth will range between 3.0% to 3.5%.
Over the Thanksgiving holiday, news broke that a new variant of COVID-19 had been isolated in...
As market strategists, we’re always on the lookout for reliable indicators of future financial...
In the 1980s, economic graduate students were taught that the “wealth effect” was minor at best....
The debt limit on authorized Treasury borrowing has created a periodic problem in recent years....
Although we expect the recovery’s rapid pace of growth to slow markedly, we believe the...
A key element to globalization is stability. In a stable world, firms are better positioned to...
For four consecutive months, consumer prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have...
In the 1970s, the U.S. had a serious inflation problem. By the end of the decade, it had become...
Last week, the federal government’s enhanced unemployment benefits of up to $300 per week expired...
Chair Powell’s term as leader of the FOMC comes to an end in early February 2022.
With the first update of Q2 GDP, the Commerce Department released its corporate profits for the...
Since the Federal Reserve was granted independence in 1951 there have been 11 recessions....
It’s probably no surprise to anyone that information processing has become a bigger and bigger...
One of the key developments in financial markets recently has been the quick rebound in bond...
The availability of ample investment capital is vital for economic growth in both rich,...
The pandemic-related expanded benefits for the unemployed are expected to end in September....
In our report from June 25, we discussed the data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S.,...
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar’s value relative to seven...
As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first...
Every quarter, the Federal Reserve publishes the Financial Accounts of the U.S.,...
As the global economy begins to recover from the coronavirus, we’ve been warning that the...
Over the past five years, the United Kingdom has been the backwater of investment attraction....
Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into last August. Prices declined toward...
In March, job openings rose to their highest level on record. According to the Job Openings and...
Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 (GFC), any rapid rise in home prices has tended to...
So, how do we make predictions? Our asset allocation process uses a committee approach and gives...
In our asset allocation strategies, we continue to have a separate provision to homebuilders.
A decade ago, the Rent Is Too Damn High Party became a viral sensation after a candidate for the...
In this report, we will discuss the importance of context when evaluating the Consumer Price...
One key worry for investors these days is whether massive fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy,...
Jan Tinbergen was a Dutch economist, the first to win the Nobel Prize for economicsfor his work...
The residential real estate market has made a strong recovery over the past year. Virtually all...
Although there are always sundry risks to financial markets, a proximate and substantial risk...
We focus on how consumer behavior may not be indicative of consumer sentiment.
The latest FOMC meeting and subsequent comments from Chair Janet Yellen have increased the...
In the past few years, we have generally avoided allocations to non-U.S. markets for our asset...
For equity investors, there is always a concern about the major market declines; being able to...
The Federal Reserve published its Financial Accounts of the United States report last week, more...
The dollar is in its third major bull market since currencies began floating in 1971.
Perhaps the most important factor contributing to sluggish economic growth has been tepid...
This week we will discuss the effects of QE on financial markets.
The relationship between the...
The most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that the U.S. central bank is preparing to...
Historically, recessions tend to come from three sources—overly tight monetary policy,...
In a recent Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,1 Sebastian Mallaby made an interesting observation...
The rapid rise in longer duration Treasury yields since the presidential election has been...
The Trump victory has significant ramifications for the economy and markets. The president-elect’...
Given continued sluggish economic growth and fears that monetary policy has reached the point...
Since the beginning of September, 10-year T-note yields have risen from a low of 1.52% to a high...
Since the recovery began, we have consistently favored duration in fixed income. Our position has...
The Brexit situation is dominating the financial news, and rightly so—such events are unusual and...
The prolonged weakness seen in capital spending is a concern for the economy and equity markets.
In our latest adjustment to the asset allocation portfolios, we added to the Real Estate...
In the most recent GDP report, corporate profits plunged.
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5491895.4.1.AM.RTL
SPD004323
Expiration: 11/30/2026
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