With the first half of 2025 already in the rearview mirror, it may be a good time to evaluate the state of play for the private equity market.
Early results for private equity thus far have not been particularly appealing. This includes midyear results for U.S. private equity fundraising, according to a recent Q2 2025 report from PitchBook.
As of 2025’s midpoint, U.S. private equity has only seen $149 billion in fundraising. While this number on paper may seem high, it represents a steep drop over last year’s results. In the first half of 2024, PitchBook notes that the U.S. private equity market raised roughly $333 billion in fundraising.
Fundraising isn’t the only hurdle affecting the U.S. private equity market. PitchBook’s report notes that 146 private equity funds have closed thus far. Back in 2024, 476 funds closed over the same time period.
Exits aren’t faring much better. Only 732 exits have occurred so far in 2025, while 2024 saw 1,393 exits in the first half.
These numbers don’t necessarily paint a pretty picture for U.S. private equity investing. With fundraising, exit, and closure numbers low, firms may be struggling to accrue capital to build up new funds.
Down, But Not Out
Luckily, hope may very well be on the horizon. Much of the woes facing the private equity market have been driven, at least in part, by macroeconomic uncertainty. However, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently hitting new all-time highs, many advisors are growing steadily more optimistic. This optimism could lead to a renewed surge in capital for private equity investments.
Market highs aren’t the only factor that could work in favor of private equity. Even though 2025 hasn’t panned out for private equity just yet, some private equity firms are confident that the script could flip soon.
In its Mid-Year 2025 Private Equity Survey, Churchill Asset Management reported that 53% of surveyed private equity leaders anticipate mergers & acquisitions activity to normalize by the first half of 2026. Better yet, 25% of survey respondents said mergers and acquisitions could return to norm by the second half of 2025.
When looking at these results, it’s clear that a number of private equity firms aren’t necessarily feeling the heat from 2025’s slow start. Even though U.S. closures and exits haven’t been stellar thus far, this optimism indicates that many firms are expecting private equity performance to return to attractive levels soon.
The optimism from private equity firms isn’t without merit. Even with all the tough numbers the private equity has faced thus far, a few interesting factors could lead to a private equity comeback on the horizon.
Opportunity in the Americas
PricewaterhouseCoopers recently released its 2025 midyear outlook. In this outlook, PwC pointed out that dealmaking within the Americas is on the rise, especially in the U.S.
First, the outlook notes that compared to 2024, buyers based in the Americas ramped up deal flows by a significant margin. In the first half of 2025, Americas-based buyers increased their investments by 16% compared to last year’s numbers. Furthermore, the PwC outlook adds that 91% of Americas-based investments stayed within its own region.
Investment flows to the Americas are coming from other regions, as well. The outlook notes that buyers in the Asia-Pacific region also increased their investments in Americas-based assets. Compared to 2024’s first half, Americas-based deal value increased 11% for Asia-Pacific buyers. These results show that private equity buyers across the globe are seemingly finding more value, not less, from investing in the Americas.
All in all, while things may not seem ideal for private equity investing in the near term, new outlook data shows a comeback may be on the horizon. As such, private equity investors may do well to dig deep and position their portfolio for long-term success.
“In today’s unsettled environment, the message for M&A is clear: steer with strategy, not fear. The most resilient leaders are those who confront uncertainty head-on, set bold long-term ambitions and move with conviction to achieve them,” said Lucy Stapleton, Global Deals Lead and UK Head of Deals for PricewaterhouseCoopers United Kingdom.
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