The burning-hot performance of gold miner stock ETFs this year has been something to watch. The much slower-burning investor appetite for it has been equally so.
Consider some ETF results, especially in the context of the S&P 500 now nearing 2% in gains YTD and that gold prices are up nearly 30%. Funds like the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM ) have now returned more than 60% so far in 2025. Gains in the past month alone have already exceeded 16%.
SGDM is in good company, too. The Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX ) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX ) are each up well above 50%. These funds are just some examples of a category of ETFs that has been rallying strongly all year, landing them among the year’s strongest ETF performers. And if you look at leveraged plays, strategies like the MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN (GDXU ) have seen gains of about 165% this year.
However you look at it, it’s been a good year for gold mining stocks. They’ve probably been the best opportunity in some five years since the 2020 pandemic-driven rally, or in nearly a decade since the 2016 run before that.
Gold Prices Key Factor
Part of that resilience has been driven by gold prices. The yellow metal is up about 30% year-to-date. Gold prices are a key to miners’ results.
VanEck’s Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio Manager Imaru Casanova recently shared a commentary on the market. In it, she noted that ongoing momentum in gold prices make sense and should continue.
“Gold’s ability to maintain its value in the face of rising stock indexes and improving investor sentiment reflects lingering concerns over macroeconomic instability, including unresolved trade tensions, high sovereign debt levels and geopolitical flashpoints,” she said.
“Unlike investor interest, which seems to surge and fade depending on evolving financial market conditions and global macro-economic developments, the official sector’s gold buying appears anchored to a long-term commitment to diversify its reserves and is supported by gold’s role as an inflation hedge and strong performance in times of crisis,” Casanova added.
As we head into midyear outlooks, many still predict gold prices should remain supported — and rising — in the near term. J.P. Morgan, for example, just released a report gold prices at $3,675/oz, on average, by Q4 and $4,000 by mid-2026. The yellow metal is currently trading around $3,400.
“Earlier this year, we examined the structural shift in gold’s demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fueling its rebasing higher, ultimately posing the question if $4,000/oz is in the cards,” JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva said.
“To answer the question — yes, we think it is, particularly now with recession probabilities and ongoing trade and tariff risks. We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” she said.
Miners’ Results Another Key
Another important driver in this category is what Casanova calls gold miners’ “operational discipline” demonstrated in the latest earnings season.
“The market is very focused on gold miners’ ability to meet their targets, particularly around production costs,” she noted. Casanova highlighted that most miners she tracks are doing well on that score. That’s key to these companies’ profitability.
“Consistently meeting or beating production and costs targets should continue to improve investor sentiment toward gold mining stocks and support a re-rating of the sector, lifting valuation metrics to levels more in line with historical multiple,” she explained.
ETF Investors Remain Observers, Not Buyers
Ironically, ETF investors have been reluctant to chase the opportunity in gold mining stocks, if not altogether skeptical. Concerns about inflation and its impact on miners’ ability to keep production costs down may be shaking confidence. Uncertainty and risk tolerance in the current market may be other factors.
GDX, for example, has now faced $2.8 billion in outflows in 2025, about $800 million in Q2 alone. GOEX has seen only about $5 million in net creations this year. And SGDM has picked up about $15 million year-to-date.
The leveraged GDXU, delivering triple digit returns, has picked up zero assets this year. What’s more, its inverse counterpart, the MicroSectors Gold Miners -3X Inverse Leveraged ETNs (GDXD ), has seen net inflows of about $110 million in 2025.
Whether gold miner ETF demand picks up remains to be seen. But the outlooks headed into the second half of the year, as they stand, look positive.
To put a finer point on that, consider this stat from Casanova: “Gold companies are currently producing gold at an average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of approximately $1,600 per ounce, translating into an average margin of more than $1,600 per ounce at today’s gold spot prices, a record for this industry.”
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