Jackson Hole: The Good, the Bad, and the Data

While investors aren’t expecting a clear date for the Fed’s first rate hike, many will be tuning in to see whether or not the central bank will reconsider raising rates in September (or this year), given recent global economic developments.

Echoing the central bank’s mantra this year, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley made several strong statements yesterday, emphasizing the bank’s data dependent stance while at the same time recognizing international developments:

“At this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several weeks ago. But normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting as we get additional information,” stated Dudley, adding “I really do hope we can raise interest rates this year. Let’s see the data unfold before we make any statements when that might occur.”

Thus far, U.S. economic data has been relatively positive, though not impressive by any means. On the corporate front, however, China’s massive downturn continues to weigh heavily on U.S. multinational corporations. Black Monday’s steep sell-off spooked investors worldwide, raising even more concerns as to whether or not the Fed may be premature in raising rates this year.

While Jackson Hole won’t give us any solid answers, what investors can do is closely monitor some of the biggest domestic data coming out from now until the Fed’s next meeting on September 17.

Throughout the next several weeks, investors may want to pay close attention to the following ETFs:

• S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX B+): We’ve already seen how both domestic and international developments can send markets into a tailspin. Should any U.S. data come out worse than expected, or Chinese fears heighten, this ETF could see an even bigger boost.

• SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB A+) and U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB A-): The next few weeks will see several key housing stats, including Pending Home Sales which are announced today. Building Permits and Housings Starts are slated to be reported on September 17.

• SPDR Industrials ETF (XLI A): This fund will be key to watch as several industrial sector reports will be released, including Factory Orders and Industrial Production.

• SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT A): University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Personal Spending, and Retail Sales will all be released.

• 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT B-): Last, but certainly not least, this ETF will likely see lots of action on September 19 and the days leading up to the FOMC press conference.

Whether or not the Fed decides to raise rates next month, investors should be prepared for volatile price swings (in either direction). The Street has not seen a rate hike in almost seven years, and once it comes, it will likely take some time to absorb the drastic shift in monetary policy. And as the rest of the world holds on to its easy-money stance, don’t expect the U.S.’s change of course to be an easy or seamless transition.

Follow me on Twitter @DPylypczak.

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.