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After an eventful few months, the summer begins with a few important waypoints for economic data....
Bob began his career at Moody’s Investors Service as a member of the Corporate Bond Rating Committee; he then went on to Loeb, Rhodes & Co. to cover the insurance industry in the Institutional Equity Research department. He then worked at Merrill Lynch & Co. for 13 years in a variety of institutional research, trading and portfolio management roles in New York and London. During this period, he was assigned to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency as a Resident Financial Advisor in Riyadh responsible for managing the foreign reserves of the Central Bank.
Bob’s investment research and comments have been featured in a wide variety of media and publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Grant’s Market Observer and Bloomberg Business News Services. He is a past recipient of the Stephen L. Kessler Award from the Investment Management Consultants Association.
Thomas is a Managing Partner of the firm and a member of the Investment Committee. He leads the portfolio management team overseeing Sage’s fixed income and equity strategies. Prior to joining Sage, Thomas worked at Credit Suisse Asset Management in New York trading fixed income assets and implementing investment strategy on behalf of the firm’s institutional clients. Thomas began his career in 1996 as a fixed income portfolio analyst with Morgan Keegan. He received his B.A. degree in Economics from The University of Texas at Austin and is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the CFA Institute.
Rob is a Principal and Managing Director of the firm and a member of the investment committee. He serves as the Director of Research. He received his B.A. in Financial Management from the University of Colorado. Rob is a Chartered Financial Analyst Charterholder and member of the CFA Institute. Before joining Sage, Rob was a Fixed Income Strategist for UBS in New York. He was also a former Senior Wealth Management Strategist for Mutual of New York and a Research Analyst for Merrill Lynch. Rob brings over 18 years of experience in credit analysis and corporate finance to the firm.
Geopolitical risk continues to set the tone for markets, even as price action suggests that many...
March payrolls beat expectations, rising by 178k, but the headline strength masks a labor market...
Recent inflation data is sending two distinct signals. Headline CPI has moved higher as energy...
Global markets stood on edge as the conflict in Iran upended energy markets and muddied the...
The past week has been marked by a sudden and unexpected escalation in the Iran conflict, adding...
There has been no shortage of market‑moving events in 2026, and the pace of headlines alone has...
Despite all that has unfolded since the last rate‑hiking cycle ended in July 2023: renewed fiscal...
On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)...
On Friday, President Trump announced his pick for FOMC chair after a closely watched series of...
While the equity market has its well‑known “January Effect,” credit markets also show a seasonal...
In recent months, the cost of living has consistently polled as the top issue for American...
In recent months, the cost of living has consistently polled as the top issue for American...
Theoretically, the two foundational drivers of long‑run economic growth are population growth,...
Midterm election years have a rhythm that fixed income investors should recognize. While at first...
Last week’s central bank decisions reinforced the end of the global rate-cutting trend, a...
The Federal Reserve delivered widely anticipated rate cut in December, signaling caution about...
Last week’s central bank decisions reinforcedthe end of the global rate-cutting trend, a...
Two perspectives emerge when analyzing the state of US consumers. Sentiment surveys paint a...
The reopening of the US government and the release of delayed economic data did little to calm...
Zohran Mamdani’s recent victory in the New York City mayoral election has drawn significant...
Last Friday, the Fed published its October Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). With official...
Expectations were high for the FOMC to deliver a dovish outcome in last week’s rate decision. As...
In a previous Notes prior to the September FOMC meeting, we wrote that the Fed’s balance...
US banks delivered robust earnings this quarter, driven by continued expansion in net interest...
In a world that clings to every labor data release for clues about potential shifts in monetary...
Following the tariff disruptions in April, improving financial conditions have supported asset...
The August PCE inflation report confirmed that price pressures remain stuck in a holding pattern....
Pharmaceutical tariffs were among the final major trade actions anticipated after Liberation Day...
As expected, the Fed cut rates at its September FOMC meeting, lowering the funds target range by...
Last week, the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report for August came in softer than...
Over the past month, the labor market has taken center stage in the debate over the near-term...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last week marked a clear pivot from prior Fed...
One of the most important but often overlooked macroeconomic shifts in recent years is the...
The Q2 2025 earnings season delivered a complex but revealing snapshot of corporate performance...
Given July’s recent payrolls miss and outsized negative revisions, the unemployment rate...
Last week’s payroll report delivered a sobering mix of disappointing data and significant...
The Federal Reserve is often perceived as a monolith. Policy decisions are usually described in...
Recent rhetoric from the White House has drawn attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell,...
Second quarter earnings from the big six US banks surprised to the upside, revealing a resilient...
The US Labor market has remained remarkably resilient despite concerns about job cuts in the...
On July 3rd, Congress approved the sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law...
Standing at the midpoint of 2025, it’s clear that global markets have been anything but ordinary....
The US Census Bureau’s May retail sales report came in weaker than expected, with the headline...
While recent inflation readings have been softer than expected,the more immediate inflation risk...
With uncertainty swirling around potential tariff actions — particularly the scope and timing of...
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered the opening remarks last week’s Thomas Laubach...
Despite the announcement of new tariffs, long-term inflation expectations—as measured by the 5y5y...
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability for economic...
In an interview last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized the trade situation...
In an interview last week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been vocal about his desire...
There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen.Last week,...
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far...
In recent weeks, market volatility has surged, driven by uncertainty surrounding the growth...
In previous Notes, we have explored asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by data centers and...
In the aftermath of the pandemic, the resilience of the US consumer has been a cornerstone of the...
In recent weeks, markets have faced significant changes due to evolving economic data and the...
The most notable item in the minutes the January FOMC meeting released last week was the...
As trade wars and tariffs dominate the early days of President Trump’s second term, a closer look...
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the defining technological shift of this era. Given the rapid...
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by lingering effects of...
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest...
As the year comes to a close, we revisit some of the key market themes and moves for 2024.
Fixed income markets face key questions that will shape their direction in the year ahead. Could...
The combination of an economic expansion, an easing Federal Reserve, and expectations of...
The Federal Reserve’s October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) provides valuable...
The results of last week’s elections have rippled through financial markets. With a...
Long-term US Treasury yields rose last week as investors digested mixed economic data that...
After a string of negative surprises throughout the summer, economic data releases have surprised...
After the FOMC opened the door to a more aggressive easing path, policymakers in China followed...
A highly anticipated rate cut materialized last week, with the Fed delivering an outsized 50...
Last week, the long-awaited labor data showed a weakening labor market, but didn’t give...
Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell made his long-awaited remarks at the Fed’s annual Jackson...
The unwind of the yen carry trade on the morning of August 5thinjected a level of volatility in...
Over the past 20 years, the corporate bond market has experienced a significant evolution driven...
Until recently, the prevailing market narrative since October was that the Fed was in a...
Last week’s soft inflation data and recent weakening labor make it increasingly likely that the...
How does fixed income typically behave during Fed interest rate cycles? We measured yield levels,...
As we enter the second half of the year, the market is focused on the leadup to the US...
The interest rate environment over the past nine months has resembled a pendulum as markets (and...
Last week, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada each lowered their respective policy...
June is a key month for markets as nearly all the world’s major central banks are slated to...
The agency MBS sector has emerged as one of the best relative valuation opportunities in the...
After rising in response to better than expected economic data through the first 4 months of the...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April CPI data on Wednesday. Consensus calls for an...
On Wednesday, the FOMC will release its May policy statement, which will not contain any...
Last week, bond yields continued their march higher as the markets digested higher inflation...
The abundance of financial market liquidity has served as a tailwind for markets over the past...
The headline payroll growth for March exceeded all estimates, with nonfarm payrolls growing by...
Strong economic data coupled with a Fed that has largely minimized its inflation fighting stance...
By Komson Silapachai
Strong economic data, particularly inflation readings that have been...
Last week marked the end of the negative interest rate era, when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised...
Since the last federal funds rate increase nearly eight months ago, bond yields have been on a...
The pace of corporate bond issuance, which shattered records in January, continued at a...
Economic data remains robust with the latest jobless claims falling by 12k jobs last week to...
By Komson Silapachai and Christina Ellis
By Komson Silapachai
Last week proved to be a catalyst-filled week with a flurry of data – a...
By Komson Silapachai
This week will see the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy...
By Komson Silapachai
In a speech on January 6, Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Federal...
Tight Spreads Point to Below Average Excess Returns for Corporate Bonds
As a result of...
By Komson Silapachai
Declining inflation through the second half of 2023 has given the Fed the...
Strong economic data and technical factors have tested markets to start the year. Last week...
By Komson Silapachai
Labor market resilience has been a prime factor in the strength of the US...
Although November’s rally is behind us, there’s still time to capture seasonal return...
By Komson Silapachai, Partner, Research & Portfolio Strategy
Last week,one of the most...
By Komson Silapachai
Bond markets found some relief in recent weeks as the Treasury’s bond...
By Komson Silapachai, Partner, Research & Portfolio Strategy
Over the past six months, the US Treasury has issued $1.5 trillion in Treasuries across bills,...
By Komson Silapachai
After the increase in Treasury issuance in July, and concerns around the...
By Komson Silapachai
By Rob Williams, Chief Investment Strategist
The last four quarters have been difficult for...
Economic readings continue to point to a “soft landing” through the next few months,...
By Komson Silapachai
Inflation is moving lower, and while the labor market remains strong, it is...
After a prolonged debt ceiling standoff in Washington came to an end, the FOMC delivered on its...
By Thomas Urano, Co-Chief Investment Officer
By Rob Williams, Director of Research
As we near the end of the Fed tightening cycle, our game...
Fixed Income Outlook in 5 Charts
By Komson Silapachai
Stresses from the US regional banking...
By Komson Silapachai, Vice President, Research & Portfolio Strategy
This week the Consumer...
Fixed Income Outlook in 5 Charts
By Rob Williams, Director of Research
by Komson Silapachai, Research & Portfolio Strategy
Key Takeaways
By Rob Williams, Director of Research
The latest inflation release illustrated the stickiness of...
The Fed is likely to wrap up hiking rates by year-end, which is good news for fixed income...
Meet a Strategist is a weekly feature where Evan Harp talks to different strategists about how...
By Ryan O’Malley, Vice President, Fixed Income Portfolio Strategist
By Bob Smith, Sage Advisory President
Nowhere to run to baby, nowhere to hide
I got nowhere to...
By Andrew Poreda, Vice President & Senior Research Analyst
A biweekly roundup of Sage’s top...
By Rob Williams, Director of Research
The water level in Lake Mead, which supplies water to the city of Las Vegas and surrounding...
Municipal investors often sift through various issues that include underfunded pensions, a lack...
Sage Managing Partner Michael Walton and Thomas Urano, who leads the Portfolio Management Team,...
The first quarter of 2022 marked one of the worst quarters for the U.S. fixed income market since...
The Russia-Ukraine war has caused countries around the globe to evaluate their reliance on...
What it means: Crypto enthusiasts have found a new area for a blockchain application: carbon...
What it means: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led many investors to rethink their outlook on...
What it means: Many investors are starting to realize that their ESG-labeled funds may leave...
Uncertainty is at its Highest Level Since March 2020. The Russia\/Ukraine war has injected a...
In the two years since the onset of the pandemic, ESG ETFs have seen tremendous growth in both...
The following charts illustrate rates and rate path expectations, as well as return expectations...
A biweekly roundup of Sage’s top ESG news picks.
The Walt Disney Company is an American multinational media and entertainment conglomerate...
We have reached a pivotal point in both the economic and monetary policy cycle, and uncertainty...
The Europeans are in quite the energy bind, as calmer winds and the shortage of natural gas...
Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) has taken hits from all angles as of late.
As the effects of climate change become more prevalent, the potential for unexpected and...
Investors have been holding their collective breath for the inevitable increase in 10-year...
Not all commodities have benefitted equally in the reflation\/economic reopening trade.
Micron Technology, Inc. is an American semiconductor company that produces a variety of memory...
Fueled by stimulus and pent-up demand from the Covid-induced recession, the U.S. economy staged...
When the European Investment Bank issued the world’s first green bond in 2007, little did the...
Corporations, governments, and municipalities worldwide have leveraged green bonds to fund...
Earlier this week, I spoke at the Barron’s Institutional Summit about how the ESG investing...
The Fed’s announcement last week that would pull rate hikes forward by six months was somewhat of...
The money market community is struggling with a 0% yield environment and a mountain of cash...
High yield corporate bond issuance is up 93% in 2021 – from $106 billion in 2020 to $206 billion...
ESG investing has evolved from niche to mainstream, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in...
While growth, earnings, and liquidity conditions are expected to remain highly supportive to risk...
Boston Properties (BXP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages 196...
Despite the Federal Reserve’s promise to keep the federal funds rate low and support the bond...
The misguided debate on the inferiority of various power sources has provided a great opening to...
Expect robust 2021 growth as conditions continue to normalize post-vaccine and policy remains...
When we talk about ESG – environmental, social and governance – investing, we often start with a...
An investor searching through ESG ETF options in present times can easily face overwhelming...
Fixed income investors have benefitted from falling rates and a recovery in spreads, which has...
Earlier this year many investors panicked and fled to cash when news of Covid-19 caused a sharp...
We expect the continued economic recovery to be a driver of market returns overall and putting...
From lowering greenhouse gas emissions to excellent supply chain management, Cisco is an industry...
As summer draws to a close, the U.S. economy continues to stage a dramatic recovery. While...
As the pandemic continues to alter everyone’s ‘new normal,’ women have been disproportionately...
As the dust begins to settle following the extreme volatility seen in the second quarter of 2020,...
In this episode, Sage’s Komson Silapachai and Emma Smith discuss the three trends that are...
As ESG strategies prove their mettle in the current market environment, investors are turning to...
In this podcast, Sage’s Director of Research Rob Williams and Vice President of Research and...
In recent weeks, Sage has become more cautious on lower-quality corporate bonds. Our caution is...
Global growth continues to slow, and the escalation in the trade war, weakness in U.S. data, and...
The New York Fed has placed a roughly 40% probability that there will be a recession in the next...
Manufacturing activity, which is a leading indicator for economic growth, has slowed down in...
Not so long ago, Consumer Staples was one of the safest sectors for corporate bond investors...
The U.S. consumer remains a bright spot amid slowing economic activity abroad and a cooling U.S....
By pausing rate hikes and slowing quantitative tightening, the Federal Reserve has supported...
With investor demand focused on the front end of the yield curve, longer maturities have been...
While a further rally in risk assets and compression in credit spread will require a...
Higher Volatility. Even after factoring in some spread widening during the year, Sage believes 3%...
Both classic and modern literature have countless stories of seemingly outmatched opponents...
In 49 BCE a provincial governor named Julius Caesar and a single legion of troops crossed a small...
As several market observers have written, corporate leverage continues to increase. Specifically,...
Housing investments account for 15% of U.S. GDP and are a large component of both CPI and PCE,...
The U.S. labor market continues to power on, with an unemployment rate now below 4%. Jobs...
The real policy rate, aka the Federal Funds rate minus the core inflation rate, remains below...
The U.S. continues to see strong economic expansion advancing at the highest rate since 2014,...
The U.S. economy continues to show strong growth, and the Fed has indicated two additional rate...
Coming into the year, we experienced synchronous global economic growth, and expectations for...
If the volatility during the first half of 2018 was caused by fears of reflation and higher rates...
According to the most recent jobs report, unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 18 years. At...
Interest rates have increased dramatically since the end of 2017 and are expected to continue...
A rising tide lifts all boats, but do rising rates lift all assets? The yield on 10-year Treasury...
At the dawn of the Trump administration a little over a year ago, equity investors were both...
On Monday, Feb. 5, the US equity market experienced its first 5% drawdown in 405 days and reached...
Technical indicators can be a useful tool for bond managers, particularly when combined with...
Several of the technical\/sentiment indicators we monitor are suggesting equities may be getting...
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5491895.4.1.AM.RTL
SPD004323
Expiration: 11/30/2026
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